Bernstein: Korea’s semiconductor equipment imports are diverging, and AI storage investment is still being transmitted

BlockBeats News, June 16 — Bernstein analyst David Dai and others stated in a report released on June 15 that South Korea's semiconductor equipment imports in May decreased by 5% month-on-month, but the year-to-date growth rate further increased to 39%. The firm believes that import data is strongly correlated with the combined capital expenditure of Samsung and SK Hynix, despite both companies' capital expenditures declining month-on-month in the first quarter. This more likely reflects seasonal factors and the pace of earlier infrastructure investments, with subsequent spending expected to recover.

The report shows that South Korea's imports of lithography equipment from the Netherlands reached 928 million euros in May, up 28% month-on-month and approximately 150% year-on-year, marking the second-highest level for the second month in a record quarter. Bernstein estimates that ASML's system sales in South Korea in the second quarter were about 2.31 billion euros, more than doubling year-on-year. Analysts say this momentum may be supported by DRAM capacity expansion and the accelerated adoption of the 1c node, which demands higher intensity from lithography equipment.

Test equipment also signals positive developments. South Korea's imports of testing machines from Japan and Malaysia increased by 103% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month in May. Bernstein's regression model indicates that Advantest's sales in South Korea in the second quarter could grow by 84% month-on-month, significantly higher than the market expectation of a 3% overall revenue increase.

However, not all equipment suppliers show equally strong data. Imports of wafer fab equipment related to Tokyo Electron in South Korea in May declined by 27% month-on-month. Bernstein expects Tokyo Electron's second-quarter sales in South Korea to possibly decrease by 15% month-on-month, below the market expectation of flat revenue.

Bernstein maintains a "buy outperform" rating for ASML, Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix. The report suggests that the storage investment cycle driven by AI is still propagating upstream in the equipment supply chain, with lithography, testing, and advanced DRAM capacity expansion-related segments showing the most robust outlook.