Argentina vs Algeria — How big are the defensive vulnerabilities behind Messi’s sixth World Cup appearance?

The Group J opener at 9 a.m. tomorrow pits Argentina against Algeria. Polymarket data shows Argentina’s win probability at about 70.5%, a draw at 20.5%, and Algeria’s upset at approximately 9.5%.

Messi will be taking part in his personal sixth World Cup, becoming the world’s first male player to play in six World Cups. But his physical condition is still a matter of concern; ahead of the match, discomfort in the right thigh muscle caused worries for a time—fortunately, it was confirmed that he can start. Left-back Taliafico missed the opening match as he was confirmed to be out due to a soleus muscle injury. Algeria also has reduced personnel in their back line: their first-choice left-back Bensebaini is also sidelined with injury.

However, Argentina have won all of their last five warm-up matches, scoring 14 goals while conceding just 1, putting them in excellent form. Algeria are also riding high on morale, beating the Netherlands 1-0 in a warm-up and thrashing Bolivia 4-0. Argentina’s defensive record—four clean sheets in their last 10 matches—is impressive, but that “single goal conceded” is precisely what exposes that their defense is not airtight. Algeria use a 4-3-3 low-block counterattack, with their offense relying only on Mahrez’s solo bursts and set pieces. This is a match in which Argentina will most likely control possession but won’t go all-out; a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 win is the most reasonable script. I made a small bet on Argentina to win plus the combination of total goals under 2.5 on Polymarket, looking for a winning start!

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