#世界杯🏆 World Cup Group I Match Predictions

Although France is listed as one of the most likely teams to win the World Cup, with a 13.0% chance, five teams have a higher probability of advancing to the knockout stage (each at 95.3%). In pre-tournament simulations, Norway is the most likely team to qualify from Group I, with an 82.3% chance; followed by Senegal, with a 62.0% chance. In 25,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Iraq only successfully passed the Group I hurdle 27.1% of the time.

According to predictions from the Opta supercomputer, the teams in Group I are quite strong. Although France is a favorite to be runner-up in this year's World Cup (with a 13.0% chance), among the 48 teams, France ranks sixth in the probability of reaching the Round of 32. In 95.3% of simulations, France successfully advances to the Round of 32.
Therefore, while it would be quite surprising if France were eliminated before the knockout stage, the supercomputer clearly believes that France’s group opponents are formidable.
In the last two World Cups (2018 and 2022), France reached the knockout stage. They won the tournament in Russia in 2018. In the latest edition, they lost to Argentina in a penalty shootout. In fact, France has reached the final four times in the last seven World Cups, a record only surpassed by a few other nations.
Meanwhile, led by Kylian Mbappé, France boasts one of the most talented players in world football, widely regarded as one of the best. He has demonstrated his outstanding ability in major tournaments: in the last two World Cups, he leads all players in goals (12) and goal involvements (14). In the 2022 final, he even scored a hat-trick.

This Paris Saint-Germain forward is aiming to make history. Mbappé needs just one more goal to tie Just Fontaine’s record as France’s all-time top scorer at the World Cup. If he scores four more, he will break Miroslav Klose’s record of 16 World Cup goals. Currently, Lionel Messi leads with 13 goals and is the only active player with a better record.
Mbappé is not the only prolific scorer in Group I. Norway has a star player, Erling Haaland, who scored 16 goals in 8 matches during the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, more than twice as many as any other European player.
However, Haaland is far from Norway’s only attacking threat. Throughout the qualifiers, Norway averaged 4.6 goals per game, the highest ever in European teams’ single World Cup qualifying campaign when playing more than four matches.
Thanks to this outstanding qualifying performance, Norway has qualified for the World Cup finals for the first time since 1998. In 1998, Norway also reached the Round of 16.
The supercomputer predicts they have an 82.3% chance of reaching the knockout stage this year, with a 25.2% chance of finishing top of the group.
Norway also participated in the 1994 World Cup, hosted by the United States—the only time the tournament has been held in the U.S. To date. That year, all four teams in their group finished with 4 points, with identical goal differences. This scenario is unprecedented in World Cup history. Ultimately, Norway finished last due to having the fewest goals scored. However, with Haaland leading the attack this time, such a situation is unlikely to happen again.
Senegal is another threat to France. In 62.0% of simulations, Senegal is expected to advance to the knockout stage. Although this is their fourth World Cup appearance, it is their third consecutive participation. Their best performance so far was reaching the quarterfinals in 2002.
Current head coach Pape Thiaw played a key role in that tournament. He assisted Henri Camara in scoring the winning goal, helping Senegal advance to the quarterfinals.
Senegal’s top scorer, Sadio Mané, missed the 2022 World Cup due to injury. However, since he won the Saudi Professional League title with Al Nassr, he will be eligible to participate this summer.
Iraq has a 27.1% chance of qualifying from Group I; among all 48 teams, only Haiti (15.4%) and Curaçao (18.7%) have lower chances of advancing.

In 1986, their only World Cup appearance, Iraq lost all three matches. In World Cup history, only Canada and El Salvador share the record of six consecutive losses, including all their matches.

So, who do you think will be the top two teams in Group I?