Iranian state media issues a warning: After the 60-day free period in the Strait of Hormuz, charges will be imposed; Vance addresses the negotiations, saying they are yet to be resolved

Iran and the U.S. sign the first-phase peace memorandum, and Trump announces the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian media disclose that after the 60-day technical negotiation period ends, fees will resume, directly conflicting with the U.S. stance of "long-term free" passage.
(Background summary: Iran's red line: the U.S. must meet these 5 conditions or negotiations cannot restart; sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest obstacle)
(Additional background: Bitcoin makes a dramatic rebound "returning to nearly $64k"! The air force suffers a bloodbath, with 97k traders liquidated, totaling over $270 million)

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• JMIC threat level remains "Severe"
• Iranian semi-official media: Fees will resume after 60 days
• Vance admits controversy: Tolls "still a negotiation focus"
• The real test for the Strait of Hormuz is after 60 days

U.S. President Trump wrote on social media on June 14: "I hereby officially authorize the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with no tolls." On June 15, the White House further announced that the U.S. and Iran had signed the first-phase peace memorandum (MOU) electronically, planning to fully open the strait after the formal signing in Switzerland on June 19.

JMIC threat level remains "Severe"

However, the U.S. Navy-led "Joint Maritime Information Center" (JMIC) stated in a security bulletin on Monday that the maritime threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains at the highest "Severe," explicitly warning mariners not to pass without authorization.

Actual traffic volume also reflects a cautious attitude. U.S. officials revealed that currently about 25 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, with expectations to increase to 50 soon. In comparison, before the conflict (before February 28), an average of 138 ships transited daily, with oil tankers carrying about 15 million barrels of oil exported daily. The current volume is still less than one-fifth of pre-conflict levels.

Furthermore, full resumption of navigation has a hard condition: all mines embedded in the strait must be cleared. Officials estimate that the earliest full reopening could occur around June 19 (Friday).

Iranian semi-official media: Fees will resume after 60 days

What truly alarms the market is the detail disclosed by Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency. According to Tasnim, after the 60-day technical negotiation period ends, Iran and Oman will begin charging service fees to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian negotiation team advisor Mohammadi further stated that the MOU text already includes an "Iranian arrangement" clause, which not only allows charging tolls but also could prohibit Israeli commercial ships from passing.

The White House has not responded to Iran's claims as of now.

Vance admits controversy: Tolls "still a negotiation focus"

U.S. Vice President Vance, in an interview with CNBC, did not deny the existence of this contradiction. He admitted that the toll issue "remains a point of contention," and added, "We expect the Strait of Hormuz to be open long-term without tolls, which will be resolved through technical negotiations."

The phrase "technical negotiations" in diplomatic context usually means: nothing has been finalized yet.

Market analysis firm Kpler's policy and geopolitical risk director Michelle Brouhard was more straightforward. She pointed out: "Iran does not intend to relinquish control over this waterway," and added, "Iran has realized that its influence over the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chip independent of its nuclear program."

The real test for the Strait of Hormuz is after 60 days

From a risk market perspective, the current situation is: short-term geopolitical risks have decreased marginally (agreement signed, strait conditionally reopening), but medium-term uncertainty has increased due to the "60-day suspense." If oil prices reignite volatility before negotiations conclude, inflation expectations will directly feed into Federal Reserve policy expectations, thereby compressing the valuation space for risk assets.

The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Whether the strait can fully reopen as planned and the progress of mine clearance will be the most immediate indicators to watch.