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# Predicting the World Cup: Argentina vs Algeria
Argentina could repeat Spain’s fate

Against the backdrop of multiple surprising goalless draws at the World Cup venue yesterday (June 16), it’s no longer surprising if a strong team “goes wrong.” With Messi up to 39 years old, Argentina’s “spear” may no longer be as sharp as usual. I predict that Argentina and Algeria could also meet in a friendly handshake and agree to a draw, for the reasons below:

1. The psychological hint of the “Draw Curse”

Yesterday’s matchday could be called “World Draw Day,” with all four games ending in draws. The most typical case was the tournament’s biggest title favorite, Spain. They fired off 27 shots throughout the match, yet were still held to a 0-0 draw by World Cup newcomers Cape Verde. Spain’s awkward 0 shots on target for the entire game vividly illustrates the iron rule that “there are no weak teams at the World Cup.” This sluggish mood and the psychological tendency of strong teams to start slowly may, in turn, subtly spread to the Argentina team about to take the field.

2. Major injury setbacks reduce numbers in the attacking line

This is the deadliest hidden threat. Key forward “Little Spider” Alvarez has been unwell with his ankle since arriving in the U.S., and at the moment he can only train separately—highly likely to miss the first match. Since the Champions League semi-final in early May, he has not played any official match, not even featuring in warm-ups. Alvarez is Messi’s best partner in the front line; his off-the-ball runs, pressing in the attacking third, and dropping back to link up play are unmatched. Without him, Argentina’s ability to break through compact defenses will be greatly reduced. Against Algeria’s “bus” formation, they may well fall into a Spain-like scenario: enjoying the upper hand but failing to find the goal. Meanwhile, starting left-back Tagliafico is also sidelined due to injury, leaving further vulnerabilities in the back line.

3. The defending champions’ tradition of slow starts and the psychological pressure

Before the match, head coach Scaloni repeatedly stressed “calm,” saying, “we neither act arrogant nor feel inferior.” While this is psychological building, it also shows that the coaching staff are clearly aware of how difficult the opening match will be. Don’t forget: in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, in their opening game, Argentina—despite being the big favorite—was overturned 2-1 by Saudi Arabia. Against a team with a similarly hard-nosed style—and also regarded as a “mysterious” side—Algeria, that psychological burden could affect the players’ performance.

4. Algeria’s iron-blooded back line and the DNA of pulling off upsets

Although Algeria’s overall strength is weaker, they are absolutely not an easy target. In warm-up matches, they once stunned the seventh-ranked Netherlands 1-0 and also swept Bolivia 4-0. With two games ending in clean sheets, they showed very strong defensive resilience. The “North African fox” has long had a tradition of causing upsets (for example, defeating West Germany in 1982, and in 2014 dragging Germany—the eventual champions—into extra time). Their counterattacking line, led by veteran Mahrez, very much understands how to take advantage of set pieces or defensive counters to steal goals when they are at a disadvantage in possession.