The Iran-U.S. agreement caused the Dow to surge by 700 points, but Israel and the CIA are quietly undermining it

Stock market celebrations, oil prices plummeting, Bitcoin soaring to $66k— all assets are celebrating peace.

But among the participants in this celebration, two of the most important players are not at the table?

One is sharpening his knife under the table, the other shaking his head behind the scenes.

Let's start with the good news.

In the early hours of June 15, the Supreme National Security Council of Iran officially confirmed that Iran and the U.S. reached a memorandum of understanding. Trump posted on social media to make it official: approving free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, immediately lifting the U.S. naval blockade of Iran.

The market went crazy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 468 points in a single day, closing at 51,671 points, a new all-time high. The Nasdaq rose 3.07%.

Brent crude oil dropped nearly 5%, falling below $83. WTI crude oil fell below $80 for the first time in three months.

Bitcoin broke through $66k. ETH rose over 8% in a single day.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said: some provisions began implementation on the 15th itself. Senior U.S. officials revealed that both sides had completed signing electronically. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Everything looks—perfect.

But the true determinant of this agreement’s fate has never been the signing moment.

The first variable: Israel.

Just hours before the U.S.-Iran announcement, Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon.

Trump, in a phone interview, directly cursed and called Netanyahu “completely unjudgmental.”

But cursing aside, Israel is not buying it.

Israeli National Security Minister Bennett Gvir publicly declared: “Trump’s agreement has no binding effect on us; Israel is not under U.S. jurisdiction.”

Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated: the Israeli military will not withdraw from southern Lebanon.

Prime Minister Netanyahu even openly said: “I don’t know the details of the agreement, but to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, I will not restrain myself in any way.”

In plain language: you want a ceasefire? I refuse.

Israeli media described the agreement as “a failure” and “disastrous.” The opposition openly said the deal “erases Israel’s military achievements.”

It’s important to note that the first point of the draft Iran-U.S. memorandum is “immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon.” The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson emphasized that the word “Lebanon” was mentioned three times in the memorandum, and the U.S. must ensure Israel also complies with its commitments.

The U.S. signed, Iran acknowledged, but Israel says: I’m not playing.

Hezbollah in Lebanon is Iran’s proxy. If Israel doesn’t withdraw, Hezbollah will continue fighting. If Hezbollah keeps fighting, Iran can’t truly “end the war.”

The second variable: even more deadly— the CIA.

According to Axios, CIA Director John R. Ratcliffe told Trump and senior officials: based on intelligence, Iran may be unwilling to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. demands in any final agreement.

Multiple U.S. intelligence agencies’ collected information shows that internal discussions among Iranian officials differ from what they tell the U.S. and mediators.

Iran is playing one face in public, another behind the scenes.

And Ratcliffe is not the only skeptic. Secretary of State Pompeo and Defense Secretary Hegseth also expressed concerns and doubts about the deal in internal discussions.

On Trump’s side, Vice President Pence and Special Envoy Wittekov support the agreement. But the head of the intelligence system tells you: they might be lying to you.

So what’s the current situation?

The U.S. signed, Iran acknowledged, but Israel refuses, and the CIA doesn’t trust.

It’s like a tripartite contract: Party A and Party B signed, but Party C says “I’m not bound,” and Party A’s risk control department says “Party B might be deceiving us.”

How long do you think this agreement can last?

Don’t forget, the core mechanism of the Iran-U.S. memorandum is: sign the memorandum first, then start 60 days of negotiations— tackling the toughest issues like nuclear concerns and comprehensive sanctions relief, all left for these 60 days.

60 days. Only 60 days.

And within these 60 days:

Israel could strike in Lebanon at any time

Iran might refuse to budge on nuclear issues

Intelligence from the CIA might prove Iran is lying

If any link breaks, the agreement collapses

“Peace is the reason for market euphoria, but peace has never been locked in by a paper agreement—especially when the signers can’t control those off the table.”

The Dow hit a new high, oil prices plummeted, Bitcoin soared past $66k— how much of this rise is real peace dividends, and how much is overly optimistic expectations?

If before the signing ceremony on the 19th, Israel bombs Beirut again?

If during the 60 days of negotiations, Iran refuses to back down on uranium enrichment?

While the market celebrates, the smart money is already #我的Gate交易时刻 counting retreat routes.