Current market price: 71.32 USDT, 24-hour increase of 2.71%, linked with BTC to rebound from oversold correction, the long-term bearish trend has not reversed, short-term resistance at the 20-day moving average, rebound volume continues to shrink, high risk of a pullback after a rally.

1. Key Bull and Bear Price Levels (Precise Contract Ranges)

Resistance levels (from near to far)

1. First strong resistance within the day: 74.5–75.0 (Daily 20 EMA, short-term concentrated selling pressure zone, the core dividing line of this rebound)

2. Secondary resistance: 80.8–81.5 (50-day moving average resonance, mid-term bullish reversal confirmation level)

3. Mid-term strong resistance: 84.5–86.0 (Previous oscillation box top, concentrated trapped positions)

4. Trend dividing line: 102 (200-day moving average, major bearish reversal point)

Support levels (from near to far)

1. Short-term intraday support: 67.0–67.5 (Rebound initiation platform, short-term bull-bear boundary)

2. Secondary defensive support: 63.0–64.0 (Low point of June’s decline, failure to hold would completely break the rebound structure)

3. Monthly strong support: 60.0–60.8 (Major capital bottom-fishing zone, extreme bull defense level)

4. Deep downside target: 50–55 (Mid-term secondary bear exploration zone)

2. Multi-cycle Indicator Breakdown

Daily chart D1 (Medium to long-term trend)

• RSI(14)=53.5, above the 50 neutral line but not entering strong zone, only a correction after decline, no trend reversal signal

• MACD: Slight golden cross below zero line, weak red bars, bearish momentum waning but insufficient bullish volume

• Moving average system: Price all under pressure below MA20/MA50/MA200, with bearish MA alignment, clear mid-term downward pressure

• Volume: During rebound phase, trading volume continues to decline, lack of bullish capital, doubt on rebound sustainability

4-hour H4 (Core short-term contract cycle)

• RSI approaching 58, nearing short-term overbought, bearish divergence emerging, potential for a pullback

• Bollinger Bands: Bands narrowing, price touching upper band with resistance, middle band support at 68.2

• K-line structure: Higher lows gradually, but higher highs under pressure, oscillation correction pattern, not a strong bullish structure

• Open interest: Small increase in open contracts, divergence between long and short positions intensifies, selling pressure chips accumulating above

1-hour H1 (Intraday trading cycle)

Short-term bullish momentum significantly weakening, consecutive small bearish candles with stagnation, MACD red bars shrinking, imminent death cross, favoring a high-probability pullback within the day.

3. Two Market Path Scenarios

Path 1: Volume breakout continuation of bullish trend (low probability, requires volume confirmation)

Confirmation conditions: 4-hour close above 75 with volume increase

• First target: 80.8–81.5

• Second target: 84.5–86

• Failure signal: Rapid fall below 72 after breaking above 75, inducing a false breakout

Path 2: Resistance pullback (current high probability trend)

1. First pullback target: 67–67.5 (Intraday key support)

2. Second pullback target: 63–64 (Structural support)
Break risk: 4-hour close below 63, directly opening space down to the 60 range

4. Contract Trading Strategy (Strict Risk Control)

Short-term long (buying on dips only, no chasing)

Entry zone: Rebound to 67–67.5 with stabilization and bullish candle, hourly stop decline
Take profit: 74.2 / 80.5
Stop loss: 65.8 (break below short-term upward trend line)

Short-term short (sell on rally after resistance)

Entry zone: 74.5–75 with resistance, 4-hour top divergence, volume stagnation
Take profit: 67.2 / 63.5
Stop loss: 76.1 (effective breakout above resistance, exit)

Observation conditions

Price range 67.5–74 with narrow sideways movement, volume remains low, avoid opening new positions, wait for volume breakout in either direction.

5. Market Risk Points

1. Linkage risk: SOL is highly correlated with BTC, BTC rebound pressure will directly drag SOL down, altcoins tend to fluctuate more than BTC

2. Macro suppression: The Fed’s high-interest rate expectations continue to suppress overall crypto valuation, no long-term incremental funds during rebounds

3. Contract risk: SOL intraday volatility can exceed 6%, high leverage easily triggers chain liquidations, recommend leverage within 10x, use partial positions with stop-loss

4. Chip risk: Dense trapped positions in the 75–86 range above, difficult to break through without massive capital influx

BTC1.32%

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