Did SpaceX fail to get a lottery spot? Analyzing the full investment opportunities behind the complete supply chain

Original Title: "Did You Miss Out on SpaceX's Lottery? Then Take a Look at SpaceX's Complete Supply Chain!!!"
Original Author: nini, Crypto Analyst

If you missed the Apple supply chain in 2010, missed Tesla's supply chain in 2020, or even the Nvidia supply chain in the past two years that made you regret it

SpaceX's supply chain is just beginning.

Of course, I think it’s not very cost-effective to simply chase after SpaceX itself. Its IPO first day surged 19%, priced at 135 and jumped to 160, with a price-to-sales ratio approaching 100, and the company is still operating at a huge loss. Retail investors rushed in on the first day of listing, and the pressure was significant.

So what I want to talk about are the companies supplying it.

History has repeatedly validated the same logic: super terminals fiercely feed back into the behind-the-scenes supply chain. In 2010, Apple launched the iPhone 4, with revenue of 1 billion yuan that year; ten years later, it reached 92.5 billion, and the stock price increased 30-fold. In 2019, Tesla’s Shanghai factory started production, CATL’s market value was just over 100 billion, and five years later, it surpassed one trillion. Nvidia exploded in popularity in the past two years, with InnoLux growing from tens of billions to over a hundred billion in market cap.

Apple, Tesla, Nvidia—each time, the super terminal takes center stage, but the real winners are the supply chain companies behind them.

SpaceX spends hundreds of billions of dollars annually to buy chips, materials, parts, and industrial gases. These procurement orders gradually turn into tangible revenue on certain companies’ books. After the prospectus was made public, this supply chain finally had accessible data for the first time.

Let’s first look at where SpaceX’s money comes from and where it goes.

Its main businesses are threefold. The first is Starlink. Last year, revenue was $11.3 billion, accounting for 60% of the group, with over 10 million global subscribers—this is SpaceX’s only stable profit-generating part, and arguably, all the other money-burning parts are subsidized by it.

The second is rockets. Falcon and Starship R&D investments total $3 billion annually, resulting in the lowest global commercial launch costs, with plans for 100 launches in 2026 and a demand for 1,500 Raptor engines. The third is AI. Last year, it lost over 220k, and on the ground, they are building the Colossus supercomputer, with 220k GPUs, and planning orbital data centers in space.

So, the money flow is straightforward: revenue from Starlink → invested in rockets to reduce launch costs → low-cost launches deliver AI hardware into space → AI computing power rented out for profit. This is roughly the cycle.

Every year, this cycle issues procurement orders worth hundreds of billions of dollars. So, who pockets this money?

Dividing by substitutability, suppliers fall into three categories.

First category: Irreplaceable in the short term

1. Nvidia, with 220k GPUs in the Colossus supercomputer. But Nvidia’s true moat isn’t hardware; it’s CUDA. Almost all AI training worldwide relies on this software ecosystem. Hardware can be swapped, but migrating ten years’ worth of code isn’t something that can be done in a year or two. We can understand that as long as SpaceX is building supercomputers, Nvidia will keep earning.

2. Eutelsat, with the code SATS. It holds the radio spectrum for satellite communications. What is spectrum? Think of it as lanes in the sky—physical laws determine only a few, and whoever claims them first owns them. No matter how advanced your technology, you can’t create new spectrum out of thin air.

Elon’s phone-to-satellite direct connection feature must pass through Eutelsat; if not, signals will clash with others’ satellites. Additionally, SATS owns about 3% of SpaceX shares. The day before the listing, it rose 11%, with options trading volume 11 times the usual.

3. Filtronic, with the code FTC, listed in London (not found on US stock searches). It makes millimeter-wave signal amplifiers for Starlink satellites, enabling signals to travel farther and clearer. In 2024, it signed a £47.3 million contract, with SpaceX contributing 83% of its revenue and holding up to 10% of the subscription rights.

These components seem small, but aerospace-grade certification takes years of repeated testing under vacuum, radiation, and extreme temperature differences. Once certified, SpaceX won’t change suppliers easily because re-certification cycles can’t keep up with production ramp-up. Also, Filtronic’s stock price nearly doubled in a year.

4. Materion, with the code MTRN. The world’s only integrated producer of beryllium metal from ore to finished product, controlling about 56% of global supply. Beryllium is one-third lighter than aluminum, six times stronger than steel, with a melting point near 1300°C—light, hard, and high-temperature resistant. Few metals meet all three conditions simultaneously.

It’s used in F-35 fighter jets, the lenses of the Webb Space Telescope, and the load-bearing structures of Starship. The U.S. Department of Defense classifies beryllium as a strategic material, and Materion is the exclusive certified supplier for F-35, with over ten years of certification. Its scarcity is evident.

5. STMicroelectronics, with the code STM. It supplies phased-array antenna chips for SpaceX, with over 5 billion units delivered, covering more than 10,000 satellites. STM predicts that the low-earth orbit satellite business will reach $2 billion by 2028 and $2.9 billion by 2030.

Second category: Technologically replaceable but costly to switch once done

1. Honeywell, with the code HON. It provides flight control and inertial navigation systems for rockets—knowing where the rocket is, where it’s headed, and maintaining attitude—all controlled by it. From Apollo to space shuttles to commercial space, decades of certification have accumulated. Replacing the supplier is like transplanting the rocket’s brain; the underlying code must be rewritten, and re-certification is required from scratch. SpaceX launches over a hundred times a year, so it’s impossible to halt launches just to save procurement costs.

2. Carpenter Technology, with the code CRS. It produces special steel alloys for Raptor engines through vacuum melting and repeated refining, controlling impurities to parts per million. Even a tiny difference can cause disaster inside the combustion chamber. Such material processes can’t be transferred just by drawings; building equivalent production lines could take decades or more.

3. Hexcel, with the code HXL. It supplies aerospace-grade carbon fiber, where every kilogram of payload weight saved is crucial. Carbon fiber skeletons are half as heavy as metal but maintain strength. It has worked with SpaceX for over ten years, tailoring material formulas and weaving processes to SpaceX’s needs. Switching suppliers would require revalidating the entire material system.

4. Broadcom AVGO, responsible for multi-gigabit data exchange between space and ground. High-speed data flow without congestion depends on it. Linde Group invested $220k near Starbase in Texas to build an oxygen and nitrogen plant, providing high-purity industrial gases for rocket launches. The closer the supply, the lower the costs—this location itself is a moat.

Third category: Requires stable mass production and minimal costs

You might not have seen a Starlink terminal in person, but think about it—there are 30 million units planned worldwide. Each contains thousands of components and dozens of processes, assembled on a production line like a smartphone, while enduring aerospace-grade vibrations and temperature differences.

At this scale, technology isn’t the primary concern; who can produce reliably and minimize costs is key.

The logic of Foxconn’s OEM for Apple applies here as well. Qiqi Technology, with the code 6285, is the world’s largest OEM for Starlink terminals and routers. Its quality control standards have been refined through years of collaboration with SpaceX, so not just any factory can take on this work.

Leading the list are several A-share companies. Xinwei Communications, 300136, is the exclusive global supplier of high-frequency connectors for Starlink terminals, with orders around 1.05 billion yuan in 2025. Paker New Materials, 605123, is the sole Chinese supplier of Starship’s fuselage and engine forged parts, with orders about 680 million yuan, accounting for 35% of revenue. Western Materials, 002149, is the exclusive supplier of niobium alloy for Raptor engines, with orders around 1.02 billion yuan. Yingliu Co., 603308, produces core castings for Raptor turbines, accounting for 42% of its revenue—SpaceX’s orders are now its largest income source.

Smaller companies include Tianyin Electromechanical, which can be likened to the star sensors on Starlink satellites that help determine satellite attitude by observing stars, holding over 60% market share. Tongyu Communications makes ground antennas for Starlink, with projected orders of 300 million yuan in 2026.

There are also several US-listed companies. Trimble, with the code TRMB, manages timing—over ten thousand satellites flying in space need synchronized clocks, with microsecond accuracy essential for proper communication. Astronics, ATRO, handles spacecraft power distribution. CTS, CTH, manages thermal control. These aren’t black technologies but are indispensable screws in the entire system.

You might ask, why are these companies still around, and why now?

Three reasons.

· First, procurement volume is just beginning to increase. With 100 launches planned in 2026, Starship testing accelerating, and AI data centers deploying into space starting in 2028, Starlink’s goal of 30 million units is still only at 10 million subscribers. SpaceX’s spending rate is far from peaking.

· Second, transparency is opening for the first time. Previously, SpaceX was private, and procurement data was opaque. After the IPO, quarterly and annual reports will continuously disclose data, allowing tracking and verification of supply chain order growth.

· Third, a historical reference. Apple’s supply chain from iPhone 4 to its peak took ten years. Tesla’s supply chain from Model 3 mass production to now has been seven years. SpaceX’s current position is more like Tesla in 2018—mass production just starting, suppliers just being finalized, and order growth beginning to steepen. Starship is still in testing, Starlink is expanding, and AI data centers haven’t yet been built—this is roughly where Tesla was in 2018.

Finally,

Buying SpaceX on its first day of listing, I believe, is paying for Elon Musk’s dream, and it’s a highly priced space dream. Of course, you could also say you believe in Musk—that’s your dream too.

But perhaps we can look at it from another angle,

From the supply chain perspective, what we’re betting on is something else—because no matter how SpaceX’s stock price moves, someone will always take on its hundreds of billions of dollars in annual procurement orders. These orders are unrelated to stock price; they are steady monthly revenue.

This article does not constitute investment advice. There are still some issues, such as beryllium’s cyclical nature, regional discounts for Taiwanese factories, small companies’ liquidity, and certification cycles that may be reshuffled due to technological iteration. Each company needs to be judged individually.

But if you didn’t get a lottery ticket on SpaceX’s IPO day,

You might consider a different approach—don’t chase high prices, and instead, look at those quietly supplying.

The giants are already ignited; this time, the shovels are within your reach.

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