France vs Senegal — A Shame From 24 Years Ago, and This Time Mbappé Leads the Team to Settle the Score

At 3 a.m. today, in Group I’s first round, France takes on Senegal. In the opening match of the 2002 World Cup from 24 years ago, Senegal pulled off a shock 1-0 win over France, sending the defending champions home directly. Twenty-four years later, they meet again. The French team’s fighting spirit is at full throttle, and their goal is only one: revenge.

I checked the odds on Polymarket: France’s implied win probability is about 82%, a draw is about 14%, and Senegal’s upset is about 4%. Bad news comes from Senegal’s side: defensive core Koulibaly hasn’t played a formal match since April, and his thigh injury has been confirmed to rule him out of the opening match. France also has losses of its own: starting center-back Saliba cannot take the field due to a back injury, with Upamecano replacing him. Both teams are missing a key central defender, so this match is very likely to turn into a give-and-take affair.

Senegal’s counterattack speed is extremely fast, and the three-pronged attack of Mané, Jackson, and Sarr is a trademark that they rely on when attacking behind the defense. On France’s side, the three-pronged high-speed lineup of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise is also no pushover. Historical data shows that in their last 10 official matches, France have 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss; in Senegal’s last 10 warm-up matches, they have 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, but the quality of their opponents isn’t high enough.

I have a hunch this game won’t have few goals. The market’s total goals threshold has been lowered from 2.75 to 2.5, pointing to a small-score pattern. But the probability of France conceding is not low. With Koulibaly missing, Senegal’s back line can’t stop Mbappé’s onslaught, and goals conceded by both sides are almost a sure thing. My strategy is to place a small bet on “both teams to score,” while also setting a bottom position on a France win. See you at 3 a.m. for the verdict!

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