Full-game draw—Spain 0-0 Cape Verde. What’s going on with this World Cup?

Iran 2-2 New Zealand is just the beginning. The biggest upset yesterday was Spain being held to a 0-0 draw by Cape Verde. Spain had 27 shots in the match, possession above 70%, expected goals of 1.46, yet they failed to score a single goal. Cape Verde’s 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha made 7 saves, snatching the first point in World Cup history—literally—from Spain’s hands.

Ahead of the match, Opta simulated Spain’s win probability at 87.2%, while the draw was only 8.1%. The result? A draw. If someone had bought into the draw before the match, $1 could turn into $12. That’s the charm of prediction markets—once a low-probability event happens, the returns are astonishing.

To be honest, I didn’t go heavy on betting this draw, I just tested it with a small amount, because Spain is simply too strong. But this taught me a lesson: there are too many variables in football matches, and the probability of a strong team stumbling is never zero. Next time I face a similar matchup (a strong team versus a weak side, with the weak side’s defense being extremely resilient), I’ll stay more alert—at least I’ll try a small bet on the draw.

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