Draw Day Big Win — Iran 2-2 New Zealand, How I Profited from This Draw

Today I must write about this carefully. Yesterday, the World Cup stage collectively "peacefully" ended in a draw between Iran and New Zealand, and I predicted this draw, making a small profit. Honestly, such collective draws are rare in World Cup history, but it’s precisely these unconventional results that make prediction markets so fascinating.

First, let’s review Iran’s game. My pre-match judgment was: Iran has a solid defense but weak offense; New Zealand is physically strong but technically rough. Neither team has the ability to easily break through the other's defense, and in the first round of the group stage, no one wants to lose, so a draw is the most likely outcome. At that time, I saw the draw price on Polymarket was 29 cents, corresponding to a 29% probability. I believed the true probability of a draw was at least over 35%, so I decisively bought in.

The match process fully confirmed my judgment. New Zealand scored early in the 7th minute with a shot from Justin, taking the lead. I was a bit nervous at that moment, thinking “This is bad, the draw is in trouble.” But Iran quickly steadied, and Rezaeian equalized with a rebound in the 32nd minute. In the second half, New Zealand went ahead again, leading 2-1, and I thought “We’re probably going to lose this.” But in the 64th minute, Mohbbi scored again for Iran to equalize, making it 2-2, which held until the final whistle. From falling behind to equalizing, then falling behind again, and finally equalizing again, Iran stubbornly earned 1 point.

By the time the game reached the 80th minute, I saw the probability of a draw had skyrocketed to over 90%, so I decisively placed a sell order at 99 cents to lock in profit. In the end, this trade netted about $14. Although the absolute amount isn’t large, the win rate was 100%, and it was a steady profit amid the chaos of “powerhouses crashing.”

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