Iran vs New Zealand Draw — My Three Additions and Final Profit Review

Brothers, today I must do a thorough review of the Iran vs New Zealand match. The final score was 0-0, a draw. And I repeatedly traded on the "Draw" market from before the match to during the game, ultimately netting about $14. Although the absolute amount isn't large, the process of this trade is very educational. I will write it out completely, hoping it helps everyone in their prediction journey on Gate Square.

First, look at the timeline. June 16th, 08:48, before the match, I judged that Iran and New Zealand were very likely to end in a draw. Iran is a traditional strong team in Asia, but their attacking firepower is average, and their defense is solid; New Zealand is physically tough, good at aerial balls, but it's hard to take the initiative to push forward away from home. I believed the probability of a draw was at least over 35%, while the market only priced it at about 29% (29 cents). So I bought in for the first time: Yes, 29 cents, 5.82 shares, costing $1.73. This price was very comfortable.

By 10:23, the price had risen slightly to 31 cents, so I sold, making a profit of 0.02. Why sell? Because at that time I wanted to free up funds to chase another opportunity. But I quickly realized that the draw probability was still undervalued, so at 10:44 I bought again: Yes, 51 cents, 44.66 shares, costing $23.45. Note, 51 cents already corresponds to a 51% probability, which is actually quite high. I might have been worried about the match approaching, market sentiment changing, and had some FOMO (fear of missing out). Fortunately, this order was refunded quickly and didn't actually execute.

At 10:51, I bought a third time: Yes, 65 cents, 44.66 shares, costing $29.89. But in the end, the match indeed ended in a draw, and at 11:05 I sold 44.66 shares at 99 cents, recovering $13.95.

Summary: From 29 cents to 65 cents to 99 cents, I captured the entire process of the market's perception of the draw probability going from undervalued to reasonable to overly reactive. But I also made the mistake of chasing the high, though luckily the outcome was favorable. In the future, I will be more patient, trying to position myself between 30-40 cents instead of chasing above 60 cents. Feel free to discuss your trades in the comments. #广场预测世界杯赢40000U