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Chamath Palihapitiya: Bitcoin could reach $1.14M
He notes that each halving is followed by an accumulation period, then enters a strong expansion phase.
Chamath believes that the current cycle is following previous patterns, and Bitcoin is still in the post-halving phase.
He explains that investors usually try to understand the market's new supply dynamics in the first few months after halving, but the biggest gains typically come afterward.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin rose about 45 times after the first halving, nearly 28 times after the second halving, and about 8 times within 18 months after the third halving.
Although returns are gradually decreasing, they remain attractive compared to traditional assets.
Chamath also points out that the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs offers more investors the opportunity to acquire Bitcoin through traditional financial markets, a demand that did not exist in previous halving cycles.
He applies the average returns from the second and third halving cycles to the current market structure, resulting in a theoretical valuation of approximately $1.14 million.