6.16 ETH Market Outlook: Weakness Linked to Rebound, Don't Expect Too Much

$ETH
Today, Auntie Ta rebounded in sync with Bitcoin, essentially riding the macro benefits of geopolitical cooling, with no independent catalysts. To be direct: the overall trend is clearly weaker than Bitcoin, belonging to a typical oversold rebound, don't expect high rebound heights or sustainability, tonight's FOMC is also a life-and-death moment.

Entry: Around 1800-1830, with a target of 1850, watch 1750-1700.

Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $400 million in the first half of the year, with June still mainly experiencing net redemptions. Institutional funds show no clear signs of returning, lacking fundamental incremental support.

This round of rise is entirely driven by external macro factors, with no ecological benefits or technical implementation as independent catalysts. The strength and sustainability of the rebound are weaker than Bitcoin.

As the FOMC interest rate meeting approaches, if a hawkish rate cut guidance is released, high-volatility assets will be the first to react. Auntie Ta's volatility is likely to be greater than Bitcoin's, with higher retracement risks.

On the larger cycle, the daily chart remains in a phase of decline and recovery from a high point, with no fundamental reversal of the overall downward trend. Currently, it is only defined as an oversold linked rebound; don't change your beliefs after a single bullish candle.