Day 1 of the FOMC. Warsh sits in the chair for the first time.

Last night, the US stock market surged wildly—Nasdaq +3.07%, Philadelphia Semiconductor +5.45% hitting a new high, Dow Jones reaching a record.
All driven by the adrenaline shot from the US-Iran agreement. But now, pre-market futures are basically flat, no more upward momentum.
The logic is simple: a 4.8% drop in oil prices is positive, but on the flip side, if geopolitical risks are eliminated and recession probabilities decrease, why would the Fed rush to cut interest rates?
Bank of America’s Hartnett said something I strongly agree with—"WTI staying in the 80-90 range is actually the most hawkish policy environment."
There’s no major data to release today (May new home starts aren’t very important), the whole market is waiting for 2:00 PM tomorrow afternoon.
But Warsh previously mentioned wanting to eliminate the dot plot and end forward guidance—if he actually acts on this at the meeting, it would be more explosive than a 50 basis point rate hike.
No changes to holdings. I didn’t chase yesterday’s big rally, and I won’t gamble on the FOMC today.
‍$BTC$ETH #FOMC #KevinWarsh #美股