From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action Analysis of BTC Short-term Trends

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is experiencing a critical turning point. After panic selling to 59,095 on June 5, a strong rebound occurred from June 6–8, reaching a high of 64,184. On June 9, "gap opening, decline, high volume crash" from 63,050 straight down to 60,774, then continued to decline to 60,774 in the early morning (new low since the rebound). In the afternoon, a shocking V-shaped rebound to 62,400 occurred. From June 11–13, the market continued to push higher to 64,722. On June 14, an extreme pattern appeared: "morning oscillation downward, afternoon panic crash, late session shocking surge." After opening at 64,407, the market oscillated, briefly surged to 64,673 at 01:00, then entered a resistance-free decline. At 04:00, it broke below 64,500, at 04:45, fell to 64,306, at 06:30, crashed to 64,212, at 07:00, down to 64,205. A brief rebound to 64,550 at 09:30, then down to 64,460 at 10:30, and in the afternoon, weak consolidation in the 64,200–64,600 range. At 14:00, a terrifying crash from 64,290 straight down to 63,857, then at 14:30, down to 63,908, at 17:30, down to 63,725, at 18:00, down to 63,643, market plunged into extreme panic. But after 20:00, signs of stabilization appeared, and at 21:00, a shocking surge from 63,980 directly to 65,551, then at 21:15, a surge to 64,742 (15-minute level), at 21:30, to 65,236 (15-minute level), and at 21:45, the high of 65,608 (15-minute level). Then a pullback to 65,078 at 22:00, and again rising to 65,709 at 23:00, closing slightly lower at 65,531 (1-hour close at 65,708). On June 15, the morning session opened at 65,706, then declined to 65,315, but after 03:00, a strong rebound occurred. At 11:00, broke 66,000, at 12:00, pushed to 66,567, at 13:00, touched 66,905, and at 15:00, hit a new high of 67,243 (since the last rebound). Then, a high-level pullback, at 17:00, down to 66,647; at 19:00, down to 66,363; at 21:00, down to 66,459; and closed at 66,470. On June 16, at 00:00, opened at 66,265, with a low of 66,225. Although the medium-term downtrend has not been fully reversed, the massive surge at the end of June 14 plus the breakthrough of 67,000 on June 15 shows extremely strong bullish momentum.
Short-term trend (15-minute level): The movement on June 14 was an extreme reversal from "hell to heaven."
The short-term trend instantly reversed from "steep decline" to "steep rise," with a breakout above 67,000 on June 15 forming a new upward channel.
Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened. The short-term trend has reversed from "steep decline" to "steep rise." The shocking surge at the end of June 14 broke through the June 13 high of 64,722, creating a new high of 65,709 since the last rebound. On June 15, it further broke through 67,243, and the market returned to a highly bullish state. The key resistance zone above 67,500–68,000 is critical. If the price can effectively break through this zone, the short-term downtrend will be confirmed to reverse; if the rebound is blocked at 67,000 and falls below 65,000, the rebound ends, and the downtrend continues, targeting 63,500–62,500.
2. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Structure of Fractals: On the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.

Top fractals appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge from around 64,000 to 65,500–66,000, then further up to 67,000 on June 15, showing extremely powerful bullish strength.
Bottom fractals appeared at the end of June 14 with a shocking surge from around 63,600 to 64,000–65,500, then further up to 65,000–67,000 on June 15, indicating very strong bullish willingness.
Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the bottom fractal at 63,414 to the top fractal at 64,722 (June 13, 21:30), forming a very strong upward stroke (blue line in the chart), with a rise of about 1,308. Then from 64,722 top fractal to 63,643 bottom fractal (June 14, 10:30), forming a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 1,079, about 82.5% of the previous upward stroke, indicating relatively strong bearish force. Next, from 63,643 bottom fractal to 65,709 top fractal (June 14, 23:00), forming a very terrifying upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,066, far exceeding the previous upward stroke, showing extremely strong bullish power. Then from 65,709 top fractal to 65,315 bottom fractal (June 15, 02:00), forming a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 394. Next, from 65,315 bottom fractal to 67,243 top fractal (June 15, 15:00), forming an even stronger upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 1,928, nearly matching the previous upward stroke, indicating sustained strong bullish force. Currently, starting from the 67,243 top fractal, the price is constructing a new initial downward stroke, with the latest low at 66,225.
Central Zone: In the 63,000–65,000 range, the K-lines from June 11–14 are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory①. The current price of 66,266 has far exceeded the upper boundary of this zone, indicating an accelerated upward breakout after the central zone. In the 60,500–62,000 range, the dense K-line interweaving on June 9–10 has formed a downward central zone in Chan Theory, but the V-shaped rebound on June 10 afternoon plus the strong attack from June 11–15 has completely broken through this zone. In the 66,200–67,000 range, the dense K-line interweaving from June 15, 12:00–21:00 is forming a new potential central zone② in Chan Theory.
Chan conclusion: The upward strokes are extremely powerful (+2,066 and +1,928), far surpassing the previous upward stroke (+1,308), showing complete dominance by bulls. Currently, the market is in a high-level oscillation after the extension of the upward stroke, with no sign of ending. Short-term focus is on whether 67,243 can form an effective top fractal; if formed, the upward stroke may end. If it directly breaks through 67,500, the upward stroke extends, risking a rise to 68,000–69,000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into typical "five-wave decline + ABC rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
A wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,184 (June 8, 15:00), about +5,089.
B wave (Correction): From 64,184 down to 60,774 (June 10, 09:00), about -3,410. B wave correction is about 67.0% of A wave, a typical deep correction.
C wave (Expansion): From 60,774 up to 67,243 (June 15, 15:00), about +6,469. The current amplitude of C wave is about 127.1% of A wave, exceeding A in length. If C wave continues to extend, target is about 68,000–69,000 (+8,234, 1.618 times A wave, target 69,008).
Wave conclusion: Currently in the unfolding phase of ABC rebound C wave. C wave is extremely powerful, surpassing A in length, and B wave has not broken the starting point of A wave at 59,095, which is a positive signal. If C wave can break through 67,500 and continue upward, the rebound target is 68,000–69,000; if C wave is blocked near 67,500 and falls below 65,000, then C wave fails, and the downward impulsive wave begins.
4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: On June 14, extremely extreme volume-price characteristics appeared. During the morning oscillation downward, volume was relatively shrinking; during the afternoon crash, massive volume accompanied; during the late shocking surge, even larger volume appeared. On June 15, volume significantly increased during the breakthrough of 67,000, indicating persistent strong bullish force. Alternating large volume during decline and rise shows fierce battle between bulls and bears, but bulls dominated completely by the end of the day.
Key volume-price nodes:

June 14, 01:00: A large bullish candle with volume of 15M, from 64,529 up to 64,600, body 71, confirming early bullish attack.

June 14, 04:45: A huge bearish candle with volume of 15M, from 64,362 down to 64,310, body 52, confirming panic selling.

June 14, 06:30: An extremely large bearish candle with volume of 15M, from 64,356 down to 64,212, body 144, confirming concentrated panic selling.

June 14, 10:30: A large bearish candle with volume of 0, from 64,627 down to 64,480, body 147, confirming continued panic selling.

June 14, 12:45: An extremely large bearish candle with volume of 126M, from 64,346 down to 64,266, body 80, confirming extreme panic selling.

June 14, 14:30: An extremely large bearish candle with volume of 712M, from 64,122 down to 63,908, body 214, confirming cliff-like crash.

June 14, 17:30: A large bearish candle with volume of 391M, from 63,866 down to 63,725, body 141, confirming continued panic selling.

June 14, 18:00: An extremely large bearish candle with volume of 1.75 billion, from 63,708 down to 63,691, body 17, confirming extreme panic selling.

June 14, 21:15: A shocking large bullish candle with volume of 733M, from 64,070 up to 64,742, body 672, confirming bullish force explosion and panic buying.

June 14, 21:30: An extremely large bullish candle with volume of 866M, from 64,774 up to 65,236, body 462, confirming ongoing bullish force.

June 14, 21:45: A shocking large bullish candle with volume of 575M, from 65,258 up to 65,608, body 350, confirming bullish force reaching extreme.

June 14, 23:00: An extremely large bullish candle with volume of 175M, from 65,391 up to 65,709, body 318, confirming bullish force again erupting.

June 15, 15:00: A large bullish candle with significantly increased volume, from 66,534 up to 67,243, body 709, confirming the acceleration of Wave C’s main rise.
Recent 10 five-minute candles: From 67,243 oscillating back to 66,266, volume shows decreasing consolidation, market waiting in the 66,200–66,600 range for direction.
Volume-price conclusion: During the June 14 crash, massive volume accompanied panic selling; but during the late surge, even larger volume appeared, bulls completely crushed bears. On June 15, volume surged during the breakthrough of 67,000, confirming Wave C’s main rise. Currently, high-volume consolidation at high levels indicates both sides are resting. Key observation points: If a pullback to around 65,500–66,000 shows decreasing volume and halts decline, it confirms Wave C continues; if volume increases and breaks below 65,000, Wave C fails.
5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The recent 3 days’ volume control point (POC) is at 65,700. This is the most densely traded area between bulls and bears, forming the current key value zone center. The current price of 66,266 is above POC by about 566, indicating a positive divergence between market value center and actual price, with bulls dominating.
Current position analysis: Price at 66,266 is about 566 above POC, in the "above value" zone but not far. In order flow theory, breaking above POC indicates short-term buyers are fully dominant, market shifting from discount to premium. The current price is moving toward higher value zones, but resistance appears around 67,000–67,500.
High volume nodes (HVN):

67,000–67,500: Resistance HVN (formed after June 15 breakout, currently creating resistance)

65,000–66,000: Core support HVN (dense trading zone on June 14–15, current support)

63,000–65,000: Lower support HVN (dense trading zone on June 13–14 morning)

60,500–61,500: Strong support HVN (massive absorption zone after June 10 crash)
Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta estimates show that during the June 14, 14:30 crash, Delta sharply turned negative (-1.5 billion), confirming active selling dominance. During the shocking surge from June 14, 21:15–21:45, Delta sharply turned positive (+5 billion), confirming active buying at the end of the day. On June 15, during the breakthrough of 67,000, Delta again turned sharply positive (+3 billion), confirming sustained strong bullish force. Currently, Delta MA12 has risen from negative to deep positive, indicating very strong buying power and complete suppression of selling.
Order flow conclusion: Price breaking through POC 65,700 shows short-term buyers are fully dominant, market in a premium state. The resistance at 67,000 and 67,500 are key HVNs. If Delta remains positive with volume breakout at these levels, expect an attack toward 68,000; if Delta stays negative and price falls below 65,000, Wave C fails.
6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and Resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 67,243 (June 15 rebound high)

Key resistance: 67,500 (Fibonacci extension), 67,000 (integer level), 66,500 (integer level), 66,000 (integer level), 65,709 (June 14 rebound high), 65,500 (integer level), 65,000 (integer level), 64,722 (June 13 rebound high), 64,340 (June 12 rebound high)

Key support: 65,000 (integer level), 64,500 (June 14 crash low), 64,000 (integer level), 63,500 (June 14 crash low), 63,000 (integer level), 62,500 (June 12 consolidation lower boundary), 62,759 (June 12 morning low), 60,774 (June 10 crash low), 59,095 (June 5 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:

June 14, 14:30: A large bearish candle with an ultra-long lower shadow (body 214, lower shadow 214), near 63,908, indicating panic selling followed by buy support, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.

June 14, 17:30: A large bearish candle with an ultra-long lower shadow (body 141, lower shadow 141), near 63,725, showing strong buy support after panic selling, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.

June 14, 21:15: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body 672, lower shadow 0), from 64,070 up to 64,742, indicating a strong V-shaped reversal, forming a "bullish engulfing" pattern.

June 14, 21:30: A large bullish candle with a long lower shadow (body 462, lower shadow 0), from 64,774 up to 65,236, showing continued bullish force.

June 14, 21:45: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 350, upper shadow 0), from 65,258 up to 65,608, indicating bullish force reaching an extreme.

June 14, 23:00: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 318, upper shadow 0), from 65,391 up to 65,709, again showing bullish force erupting.

June 15, 15:00: A large bullish candle with a long upper shadow (body 709, upper shadow 0), from 66,534 up to 67,243, indicating acceleration of Wave C’s main rise.
Trend structure:

Short-term: Running in a steep upward channel (connecting 60,774, 63,643, 65,315 with an upward trendline)

Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10’s high of 82,448 is experiencing a critical turning point, with a new upward trend forming.
Price action conclusion: The short-term is in a high-level oscillation after Wave C’s surge, with 67,500 as the dividing line: a breakout confirms an upward trend; a rejection and pullback test 66,000–65,500 support.
Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but with significantly weakened downward momentum. The short-term trend has reversed from "steep decline" to "steep rise," with key levels at 67,500 (up) and 65,000 (down). Chan Theory shows extremely powerful upward strokes (+2,066 and +1,928), far surpassing the previous upward stroke (+1,308), currently in a high-level oscillation after upward extension. Elliott Wave confirms a completed five-wave decline, with ABC rebound and Wave C unfolding (+6,469), surpassing A in length, with targets at 68,000–69,000. Volume-price signals show the crash on June 14 with massive volume, followed by a late surge with even larger volume, and a breakout on June 15 with massive volume, indicating bulls crushing bears. Order flow shows POC at 65,700, with price breaking into the premium zone, and deep positive Delta MA12. Price action shows "hammer," "bullish engulfing," and "shooting star" patterns, with a highly bullish short-term bias but heavy resistance at 67,500.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price shows decreasing volume and halts decline near 65,500–66,000 with bottom fractal and positive Delta, consider going long, targeting 67,000 → 68,000, stop loss at 65,000.

Bearish scenario: If rebound reaches 67,500–68,000 with top fractal and volume decline, confirming Wave C rebound failure and the start of a downward impulsive wave, consider shorting, targeting 66,000 → 65,000, stop loss at 68,200.
Current state: Price at 66,266 is in a high-level oscillation after Wave C’s surge, highly bullish in the short term but with heavy resistance at 67,500. Wait for a pullback to 65,500–66,000 to confirm support before going long, or wait for a breakout above 67,500 to confirm trend reversal before chasing the rally.