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#我的Gate交易时刻 #马斯克称SpaceX市值将达2万亿美元 SpaceX’s sky-high IPO: Musk becomes the first “trillionaire”—the limit game between capital and technology, and the logic and paradox behind a trillion-dollar valuation
On June 12, SpaceX listed on NASDAQ under the stock ticker SPCX, with a fixed offering price of $135, a fundraising size of $75 billion, and an opening valuation of $1.77 trillion—setting a new record for IPO history. On its first day of trading, SpaceX jumped 29% at the open and closed up 19%. Its market cap briefly surpassed $2 trillion, overtaking JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway, and landing it sixth among global publicly listed companies. Behind this capital feast, Elon Musk’s personal wealth also broke through $1.1 trillion, making him the first “trillionaire.” However, the logic of this “epic” IPO is far from explainable by conventional business narratives. Its valuation fulcrum, power structure, and looming future risks reveal deep contradictions intertwined between technology and capital.
Breaking down three major business lines: the huge gap between current profits and future expectations.
SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation comes from Wall Street’s “future narratives” about its three main businesses:
1 Starlink: the cash pillar and growth engine as its only profitable segment. As of this year’s first quarter, Starlink already has more than 10.3 million paying users, annual revenue of $11.387 billion, and operating profit of $4.4 billion. In the low-Earth-orbit satellite internet track, it is nearly monopolistic. Its scale effects and network effects form the basis of its valuation.
2 Space launch: a technical moat and short-term losses. Although the Falcon series rockets and the Starship project have built technical barriers, 2025 revenue reaches $4.086 billion, yet the business is still not profitable. Breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology have given it absolute dominance in the commercial spaceflight arena.
3 xAI: a “burning money” track, and an AI business folded into long-term imagination (the Grok large model and computing clusters) with a 2025 loss of $6.3 billion, yet it carries SpaceX’s ambitions for an “intelligent era.” While high R&D spending drags down current profits, it is viewed as leverage to unlock a future trillion-dollar market. The contradiction is that, in 2025, total revenue is only $18.7 billion—implying a price-to-sales ratio of 90–107 times, far above the industry average. Current performance clearly cannot support the valuation. Investment banks extend the time horizon to 2040, forecasting that the potential market size of the three businesses could reach $28.5 trillion, with revenue possibly up to $3.4 trillion—using the “distant future” to underwrite the premium being priced in today, which has become the core logic of this IPO.
The “Musk premium” in the power structure: the company is the person, and the person is the company!
After dissecting the business model, the true core of SpaceX’s valuation lies in its founder, Elon Musk. Through an AB share structure, he controls 85.1% of the voting power, giving him absolute control over company decision-making. This IPO also breaks precedent: there is no price discovery roadshow and no price range. Musk sets the price at $135 directly, adopting a strong “take it or leave it” posture. Yet it still attracts more than $250 billion in subscription demand, with nearly 4x oversubscription. The market’s rush for this “Musk premium” comes from his historical record of “breaking the mold”—from a ridiculed rocket-recovery dream, to mounting a comeback after three failures; from Starlink overturning the communications industry, to the aggressive exploration of Starship. His ability to turn the “impossible” into reality is the key basis investors are betting on.
If Musk were removed, would SpaceX still be worth a trillion? The answer is in doubt.
Buying SPCX stock is, at its core, betting on one person’s vision and execution strength—perhaps the most straightforward and openly quantified “human capital premium” the capital markets have ever seen.
Capital paradox: use today’s money to build machines that “replace today’s people.”
Behind this celebration lies an unsettling logical closed loop: retail investors put their savings into SpaceX, effectively funding its xAI division at a rate of $7.7 billion per quarter to burn on AI system R&D. One of the ultimate goals of these technologies is to replace large numbers of human jobs—to build “self-replacing” machines out of the company’s own funds, a notion that is absurd yet real. At the same time, capital is accelerating toward concentration at the top. On the day SpaceX went public, Virgin Galactic plunged 25%, while Rocket Lab fell 8.8%. Under the Matthew effect—where the strong eat the weak—“super companies” form a positive feedback loop through technological dominance and myth-making, causing valuation premiums to keep swelling. Traditional valuation models (such as DCF and the comparable companies method) have already lost effectiveness, because the line item of “founder premium” has never appeared in the spreadsheet. Yet its actual value may well be far beyond any number on the financial statements.
Epilogue: a trillion-dollar valuation, a bet on the future
SpaceX’s listing is a product of technological breakthroughs, capital frenzy, and personal worship intertwined. Its trillion-dollar valuation rests on three assumptions: Starlink’s continued expansion, the commercialization of space technologies, and xAI’s potential to overturn the future. And Musk’s absolute control ties the company’s fate deeply to his personal power—this is both an advantage and a risk.
When a company’s value is anchored to the founder’s foresight and execution, its fragility is equally self-evident.
In the next decade, the capital markets may witness more “Musk-style” companies: attracting sky-high valuations with disruptive visions, digesting today’s bubbles through long-term promises, and placing human capital above traditional assets.
The chime of SpaceX is not the end—it is the prologue to a new era of capital and technology games. In this bet, what investors are wagering on is not only space and AI, but also a prediction of the direction of human civilization’s evolution. $SPCX
On June 12, SpaceX listed on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SPCX. With a fixed offering price of $135, a fundraising size of $75 billion, and an opening valuation of $1.77 trillion, it set a new record in IPO history. On its first day of trading, SpaceX surged 29% at the open and closed up 19%. Its market capitalization briefly exceeded $2 trillion, surpassing JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway, and ranking as the sixth among global listed companies. Behind this feast of capital, Elon Musk’s personal wealth also broke through $1.1 trillion, making him the first “trillionaire.” However, the logic behind this “epic” listing is far from explainable by traditional business narratives. Its valuation fulcrum, power structure, and future concerns reveal deep contradictions intertwined by technology and capital.
Three business segments broken down: a huge gap between today’s profitability and future expectations.
SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion valuation comes from Wall Street’s “future narrative” about its three major businesses:
1 Starlink: a cash pillar and growth engine as the only profitable segment. As of this year’s first quarter, Starlink already has more than 10.3 million paying users, annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.4 billion, and is nearly a monopoly in the low-Earth-orbit satellite internet track. Its scale effects and network effects form the basis for the valuation.
2 Space launch: a technological moat and short-term losses. While the Falcon series rockets and the Starship project—despite building technical barriers—still have not achieved profitability, revenue is expected to reach $4.086 billion in 2025. The technological breakthroughs of reusable rockets have given Space launch an absolute dominance in commercial spaceflight.
3 xAI: a money-burning track and an AI business infused with long-term expectations (Grok large model and computing clusters). In 2025, it is set to lose $6.3 billion, yet it carries SpaceX’s ambition for an “intelligent era.” Although high R&D spending drags on current profits, it is regarded as leverage to unlock a future trillion-dollar market. The contradiction lies in the fact that in 2025 total revenue is only $18.7 billion, implying a price-to-sales multiple of 90–107x—far above the industry average. Current performance obviously cannot justify the valuation. Investment banks have pushed the timeline to 2040, predicting that the potential market size of the three businesses could reach $28.5 trillion, with revenue possibly up to $3.4 trillion—using a “distant future” to validate today’s premium, which becomes the core logic behind this IPO.
The “Musk premium” in the power structure: the company is the person, and the person is the company!
After dissecting the business model, the real core of SpaceX’s valuation lies in its founder, Musk. Through an AB share structure, he controls 85.1% of voting rights, giving him absolute control over company decisions. This IPO also breaks with convention: there were no inquiry roadshows and no price range—Musk directly set the price at $135, adopting a strong “accept or give up” posture. Even so, it attracted more than $250 billion in subscription demand, nearly 4x oversubscription. The market’s rush for this “Musk premium” stems from his track record of “breaking through”: from the mocked dream of rocket recovery to a comeback after three failed attempts; from Starlink overturning the communications industry to the aggressive exploration of Starship—his ability to turn “the impossible” into reality is the key reason investors are betting on him.
If Musk were stripped away, would SpaceX still be worth a trillion? The answer remains uncertain.
Buying SPCX stock is essentially betting on one person’s vision and execution—perhaps the most direct quantification of “human capital premium” the capital market has ever seen.
Capital paradox: using today’s money to build machines that “replace today’s people.”
Behind this celebration lies a disturbing logic loop: retail investors put their savings into SpaceX, effectively funding its xAI division at a pace of $7.7 billion per quarter to burn money developing AI systems. One of the ultimate end goals of this technology is to replace large numbers of human jobs—self-funding the creation of “self-replacing” machines; absurd, yet real. At the same time, capital is accelerating toward concentration at the top. On the day SpaceX went public, Virgin Galactic plunged 25%, and Rocket Lab fell 8.8%. Under the Matthew effect of the strong eating the weak, “superior companies” form a positive cycle by crushing competitors through technology and myth-making narratives, causing valuation premiums to keep swelling. Traditional valuation models (such as DCF and comparable-company methods) have already become ineffective, because the “founder’s premium” was never shown as a line item in the accounts—yet its actual value may well be far beyond any number on financial statements.
Epilogue: a trillion-dollar valuation—betting on the future
SpaceX’s listing is the product of intertwined technological breakthroughs, capital frenzy, and personal worship. Its trillion-dollar valuation rests on three assumptions: Starlink’s continued expansion, the commercialization of space technology, and the disruptive potential of xAI. Meanwhile, Musk’s absolute control tightly binds the company’s fate to his personal direction—this is both an advantage and a risk.
When a company’s value is anchored in the founder’s vision and execution, its fragility becomes equally self-evident.
Over the next decade, the capital market may see more “Musk-style” companies: using disruptive visions to attract sky-high valuations, digesting today’s bubbles through long-term promises, and placing human capital above traditional assets.
The chime of SpaceX is not the endpoint, but the prelude to a new era in the capital-and-technology game. In this bet, investors are wagering not only on space and AI, but also on a prediction of where human civilization will evolve. $SPCX