$SPCX Enter the long position of 170 first, as it has reached the previous high pressure level, wait and see what happens! ‌SPCX Bull-Bear Strategy — 2026-06-16

【Trading Data】
IPO issue price: $135
Day 1 (6/12) closing: $160.95 (+19.2%)
Day 1 high: $176.52
Day 1 trading volume: $85 billion (historical record)
Day 2 (6/15) closing: about $193 (+20%)
Two-day cumulative increase: +43%
Day 3 (6/16) pre-market: $185.26 (-4%)
Current market cap: about $2.43 trillion

【Core Contradiction】
Morningstar DCF valuation: $780 billion → corresponding share price about $60
Current market cap: $2.43 trillion → corresponding share price $185
Premium multiple: 3.1 times
Conclusion: The market is paying for Musk’s $1 trillion 2030 revenue dream, not fundamentals

【Four Scenario Projections】
Scenario A (25%): Continuation of short squeeze $185 → $220-244 (Apple market cap benchmark) → Just watch and not act
Scenario B (45%) Main scenario: Surge then fall back $185-200 peak → $150-165 → Wait for $195-200 to test short
Scenario C (20%): Deep correction below $150 → $135 → Strong long at $135-140
Scenario D (10%): Index inclusion catalyst → Further rise of 20-30% → Can chase long

【Short Selling Strategy (Conditional Trigger)】
Entry: $195-200 (confirm top with volume spike and upper shadow)
Stop loss: $210 (hard stop, -5%)
Target 1: $165 (Day 1 closing price)
Target 2: $150 (Day 1 opening price)
Risk-reward ratio: 2.3:1 → 3.3:1
Position size: 25% (very small position)
Prerequisite: Confirm source of shares exists, interest rate below 30% annualized

【Long Position Strategy (Conditional Trigger)】
Entry: $150-160 (pullback to Day 1 range + support confirmation)
Stop loss: $142 (break below IPO opening price, -5%)
Target 1: $185
Target 2: $200
Risk-reward ratio: 2.5:1 → 4.0:1
Position size: 40%

Alternative long: $135-140 (near IPO issue price) → 60% position, stop loss $128

【Current Advice】
Main strategy: Wait and see (only 3 days of trading history, avoid heavy position betting)
Avoid: chasing long at current $185 (+43%, poor risk-reward)
Avoid: short at current $185 (against the momentum of the biggest IPO in history = courting death)

【Key Catalysts Timeline】
6/16: Bank of Japan interest rate decision (indirect trigger)
6/18: Fed FOMC Waller debut (decides risk appetite)
Mid-July (est.): End of quiet period for investment banks, first research reports coverage
July-September (est.): S&P/NASDAQ index inclusion decisions
Mid-December (est.): Original shareholders lock-up expires, 670 million+ shares unlocked

【Three No-Trade Rules】
Don’t heavily load on stocks with only 3 daily K-lines
Don’t short just because of too much rise (Musk’s stocks are irrational)
Don’t chase longs just because you missed out (+43% FOMO is suicidal) #我的Gate交易时刻

Conclusion: SPCX is one of the biggest trading opportunities of the year, but $185 is not our position. Wait for $150-160 to go long, or wait for $195-200 to test short. Let the bullets fly a little longer.