I have to admit, this time Trump "guessed" right again. Just yesterday, the market was generally skeptical about signing on Sunday due to Israel's disruptions and Iran's tough stance, but the plot has now reversed.

Although the terms announced by Iran seem to put the U.S. on the back foot (even mentioning war reparations), Trump has not acknowledged that this is the final agreement. However, this no longer matters. Trump has announced that all details will be released after the signing on Friday. For the market, the specific content of the agreement is not crucial; what matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

I firmly believe Trump understands this well: only by reopening the Strait of Hormuz can inflation be quickly suppressed. After all, less than five months remain until the midterm elections, the prospects for the Republicans controlling both houses are bleak, and their approval ratings continue to decline. For him, quickly ending the chaos in the Middle East to free up resources to stimulate the economy is the only political way out. Therefore, as long as the signing goes smoothly on Friday, the U.S.-Iran dispute will essentially be settled.

This is undoubtedly great news for risk assets. Currently, the S&P and Nasdaq futures have already returned to their highs, and hitting new highs this week is highly likely. Bitcoin returning to $70k is also worth expecting. The only variable is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting early Thursday—Waller's stance and the dot plot will be the key focus.

Honestly, I am not worried about Bitcoin's trend; the only regret is that in the $60k range, I allocated more of my position to oil, and only did a dual-asset investment with Bitcoin. Now it seems that missing out has indeed caused some frustration. #btc $BTC