#比特币反弹 Bitcoin soars past $65k, will Warsh's debut dampen the mood?

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that the peace agreement with Iran "is now complete" and that the U.S. will end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route, market risk appetite has returned.
Asian stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 futures up about 1%. Brent crude oil fell over 4%. WTI crude oil prices plummeted nearly 5%, slightly below $81 per barrel, the lowest in about two months.
A lasting peace agreement would be welcomed by the global economy.
Since the end of February, the strategic Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, cutting off most of the Persian Gulf's oil and natural gas exports, impacting the global economy with oil price shocks.
Reports indicate the agreement is expected to be officially signed in Switzerland on Friday.
Before that, markets will closely watch three major variables: whether the agreement can be signed on time, whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can truly resume, and whether Iran's nuclear issue will reignite tensions in subsequent negotiations.
Focus on Warsh's debut
De-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East may support risk assets before Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair this week.
However, if the Fed signals higher interest rates, it could pressure cryptocurrencies.
Markets generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged this week, but what truly influences the market is not the rate decision itself, but how Warsh sets the future policy path.
Investors will focus on three points: whether the Fed downplays rate cut expectations, whether it emphasizes that inflation remains sticky, and whether the latest dot plot signals a more hawkish stance.
If Warsh emphasizes tariffs, core inflation, and labor market resilience in the press conference, implying the Fed needs to maintain high interest rates for longer, or even consider further rate hikes, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could strengthen, and assets like stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies may face a pullback.
Conversely, if Warsh acknowledges that the U.S.-Iran agreement eases oil price shocks and states that falling energy prices help reduce inflation pressures, while avoiding hawkish signals, markets may continue to bet on risk appetite returning.
At that point, U.S. tech stocks, Bitcoin, and other high-beta assets could see further support.
Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading in Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said: “The focus this week is on Wednesday’s Fed meeting. The market expects the policy stance to shift from dovish to neutral/hawkish, and an unexpectedly hawkish tone would be the main downside risk for cryptocurrencies.”
Bitcoin breaking $64k as a catalyst
Renowned crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that Bitcoin breaking above $64,000 is a catalyst for risk appetite to return.
Van de Poppe predicts: “Altcoins will benefit from this move and gain more liquidity. We might see a second wave of strong performance in the market’s top assets.”
He added: “From this perspective, a breakout above $64,000 means risk appetite is returning. Altcoins will benefit from this move and gain more liquidity, and we could see the strongest assets in the market rise further.”
Popular crypto analyst and trader Ali Martinez said that if Ethereum re-enters the $1,070 range, which is the lower boundary of a multi-year channel pattern, it would present “one of the best buying opportunities.”
Ali Martinez stated: “If Ethereum (ETH) re-tests $1,070, I believe, based on this multi-year channel pattern, it will be one of the best buy signals on the chart.”