With the easing of the international situation, the games and fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market

The valuation logic of global risk assets has always been based on two main factors: geopolitical struggles and monetary policy.
In the first half of June, the navigation crisis at the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpectedly high inflation data from the US together exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin, pushing the price from #我的Gate交易时刻 down below $60,000, reaching a new low in nearly 20 months during the correction.
On June 15, as international tensions showed signs of easing gradually, Bitcoin experienced a technical rebound, temporarily surpassing $70k , with market sentiment somewhat recovering from the "extreme fear" zone.
The immediate catalyst for this rebound came from the gradual reduction of geopolitical risks over time.
Previously, the navigation blockade at the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran confrontation drove up international oil prices and reinforced global inflation expectations, becoming a main external factor restraining the crypto market.
When the two sides reached a temporary agreement on navigation, the energy supply risk in the Gulf region decreased, Brent crude oil prices fell below $95, and global risk assets generally regained risk appetite—US stock and commodity futures rose, the US dollar index weakened slightly, and Bitcoin, as a highly volatile risk asset, also attracted renewed buying interest.
A slight improvement in macroeconomic expectations also provided some support.
With only two trading days before the first FOMC meeting chaired by new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on June 17-18, the market currently prices a 98.2% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, easing concerns about short-term tightening.
Although US CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, the highest in three years, expectations for interest rate hikes this year remain high.
However, before policy decisions are implemented, the market has entered a short-term "wait-and-see" phase, with some short-term speculators taking profits, which has driven the rebound.
Based on capital and trading data, initial signs of additional institutional fund inflows have appeared during this recovery.
After five consecutive days of net outflows, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $85.85 million on June 12, the highest in nearly four weeks, with major products like BlackRock’s iBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributing significantly to the growth.
The market interprets this as a sign that institutional funds are cautiously probing buy-ins as prices hover around $60,000.
However, it should be noted that since June, ETF outflows have exceeded $2.1 billion, nearly matching the total outflows of May, indicating that the long-term capital withdrawal trend has not fundamentally reversed.
Market volatility remains intense, with total liquidation amounts reaching $339 million in 24 hours, over 100,000 investor positions liquidated, more than 70% of which are short positions, reflecting ongoing fierce leverage games in the short term.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a conflicting state of "big cycle pressure and small cycle recovery."
On the daily chart, the price remains below the 20-day moving average (around $66,700), with all cycle averages in a downtrend, and the overall downward trend structure unchanged;
The daily RSI is around 42, in the neutral-weak zone, not enough to trigger a strong recovery or sustain an upward momentum.
On the short-term hourly chart, a clear upward channel has formed, with prices above short-term moving averages, but trading volume is relatively moderate, and a bearish divergence has appeared on the 15-minute level, indicating the recovery momentum is waning.
Overall, this rebound is mainly a technical correction due to reduced international tensions rather than a trend reversal.
The future trajectory still depends on Fed policy signals and capital inflows: if the FOMC meeting signals dovishness and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin could recover to $68,000–$70,000;
If the Fed raises interest rate hike expectations or geopolitical tensions flare up again, prices may test the support level $65k , and a break below this level could open further downside space.
For investors, it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at this stage, and caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a second correction after the rebound, especially paying attention to the potential break of the resistance around $66,700.
$60k