Yang Guang bit | June 16 $BTC Precise Strategy

Core Conclusion
BTC driven by US-Iran reconciliation sentiment, rebounded from the 63600 low point, reaching a high of 67283, with a short-term total increase of over 3600 points. Currently, geopolitical positive factors have been fully priced in by the market, and bullish momentum is gradually weakening. After encountering resistance at the high, the price officially enters a correction phase. The major downward trend has not reversed; this rebound is only a sentiment repair rally. After reaching the rebound target, the focus will shift to short positions, and once the positive factors are realized, the decline will restart.
Today's Outlook
Entry Timing
Gradually build short positions as the price rebounds to the 66900-67200 range, add to positions near 67400 if it rises further
Stop Loss Setting
Set stop loss above 67600
Tiered Take Profit
First target: 66000-66200
Second target: 65200-65400
Third target: 64200-64500
Market Logic Breakdown
News
The market has mostly digested the expectations of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, and the “buy the rumor” phase is coming to an end. The geopolitical sentiment's boosting effect on the market has bottomed out, and the subsequent trend is likely to be a “sell the fact” profit-taking correction.
This week marks the start of the global central bank super week. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision today, with over 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The return of yen arbitrage funds will tighten global liquidity, directly suppressing risk asset prices; the Fed’s June decision will be announced early Thursday, with hawkish policy expectations still dominant. The macro environment does not support continuous BTC price increases.
Funding
BTC spot ETF inflows have only slightly rebounded for two consecutive days, with daily inflows less than $100 million, far below the previous 14 days of outflows. Institutions are only engaging in short-term rebound operations and have not initiated trend-based position increases. This rebound lacks sustained incremental capital support.
On-chain data shows that whale addresses above 66,000 continue to transfer chips to exchanges, with strong willingness to cash out at high levels; the 67,000-67,500 range is a densely traded, trapped zone, with concentrated selling pressure, making effective bullish breakthroughs difficult.
The contract market’s recent surge was accompanied by large-scale short liquidation, typical of a short squeeze rally, not driven by bullish long positions. Currently, retail long positions are increasing, and chasing the rally is overly heated. After the short squeeze ends, concentrated long liquidation will accelerate the price decline. $BTC ‌#美伊协议达成海峡将开放