Gold returns to $4,300—why does “peace” instead make gold prices surge?

After news came out that the US and Iran had reached a peace agreement, almost all risk assets rose. By common sense, with the war cooling down and safe-haven demand falling, gold should have pulled back. But reality delivered a resounding slap to everyone: spot gold surged straight up, reclaiming the $4,300 level, with the intraday gain expanding to more than 2%, and London silver also jumped nearly 5% in tandem.

Behind this eerie and unusual reversal are three layers of logic.

First, driven by a repair in inflation expectations. In May, the US CPI rose to 4.2% year over year, the highest level since May 2023, with rising energy prices as the main driver. Expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen are rapidly unraveling the tight energy supply situation, causing inflation expectations across the market to cool noticeably. The market then cut back its bets on Fed rate hikes. Falling real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing upward momentum for gold prices.

Second, the market does not fully trust the agreement. In pure risk-on trading, spot gold should have been sold off, but it still received steady buying near $4,300. This sends a clear signal: the market has not fully trusted the agreement’s staying power. An unsigned agreement faces execution risk, and any little change could reignite safe-haven demand—gold is standing guard for exactly that.

Third, the long-term structural logic behind central banks buying gold is still in effect. China’s central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 19th consecutive month. By the end of May, gold reserves rose to 74.96 million ounces, with the pace of additions expanding for the third consecutive month. Global central banks’ average annual gold purchases remain elevated. Mine gold supply growth is limited, while the resilience of physical demand is strong. Goldman Sachs expects gold could rise to $5,400 by the end of 2026, and suggests seizing opportunities to allocate amid short-term pullbacks.

In the short term, expectations that the agreement is about to be formally signed reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Combined with cooling inflation expectations, gold and silver gain rebound momentum. In the long term, key supports remain unchanged—global central banks’ strategic purchases, the irreversible de-dollarization process, and the long-term persistence of fiscal deficits. Gold still has irreplaceable medium- and long-term allocation value.

Gold short-term traders follow the move: existing positions will raise their stop-loss to $4,200 to lock in profits; new entries will wait for a pullback to the $4,150–4,180 area to buy gold ETFs or physical gold bars in batches. The real big logic for gold is still continuing to be written—$4,300 is not the endpoint, but a new starting point.

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