U.S. Clarity Act 7/4 Passage Unlikely? Foreign media directly state "mathematically impossible," Congress shifts focus to August recess

According to the latest policy analysis from "Crypto In America," despite the White House's active push, it is "mathematically impossible" for the U.S. cryptocurrency regulation bill, the "Clarity Act," to be signed into law before July 4th. With only nine working days left before the Senate recess, it is simply impossible to complete the complex cross-committee consolidation and voting procedures. However, industry players and bipartisan senators still show strong confidence, shifting the goal of passage to the August recess or the end-of-year lame-duck session.
(Background: The deadlock in the enforcement provisions of the U.S. Clarity Act: legislative window only 8 weeks left, industry and law enforcement face off)
(Additional background: Breaking news! The U.S. Clarity Act passes the Senate Banking Committee successfully! Next step is a full chamber vote)

The White House initially hoped to sign the historically significant cryptocurrency regulation bill, the "Clarity Act," into law as a "birthday gift" during the 250th anniversary of American independence on July 4th. However, the reality of the political process has dashed this optimistic vision early. According to the latest feature report released by "Crypto In America" on the 15th, this legislative timetable has completely failed, emphasizing: "This is not a subjective opinion, but a brutal math problem."

The report points out that although Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Crypto Council, tried to remain optimistic in an interview last week, believing that behind-the-scenes negotiations still offered a chance, the Senate only has nine working days left before the recess, making it impossible to handle the heavy cross-committee negotiations and bicameral voting process, effectively ending the July 4th passage goal.

Nine working days are like climbing a mountain, legislative process becomes the biggest barrier

The "Clarity Act" currently faces not just a single clause dispute, but a massive and lengthy procedural obstacle. To complete legislation within nine days, the Senate must perform six arduous steps: first, merge the differing texts from the Banking and Agriculture Committees; then, secure 60 votes to invoke cloture; pass the complex manager’s amendment; after the full Senate approves, it must be re-approved by the House of Representatives, which is currently in recess; and finally, send it to the President’s desk.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the lead sponsor, admits that merging multiple amendments—including the banking, agriculture, ethics clauses, and the Genius Act—and securing enough votes will indeed require more time than July 4th. Additionally, senators’ attention is currently divided by other urgent congressional priorities, including the imminent expiration of FISA Section 702 reauthorization and hearings for former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton’s appointment as Director of National Intelligence.

Political capital has been invested, industry eyes "August" milestone

Despite the short-term sprint failure, Wall Street and Washington’s crypto advocates are not discouraged. Most believe that the "Clarity Act" still has a very high chance of passing before the end of the year, with the August recess seen as a more pragmatic milestone. Adam Minehardt of the Hyperliquid Policy Center pointed out that, considering the heavy political capital already invested, it is unlikely that the bill will fall off the agenda of the 119th Congress. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego also stated that even if delayed until the "lame-duck session" after the November midterms, Congress still has ample time to pass the legislation.

However, the report also warns that if the bill is unfortunately delayed until the end of the year, the biggest risk will shift to political variables. Once Democrats regain control of Congress after the midterms, whether the fragile bipartisan support coalition can be maintained will become a major question.