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This March, BTC broke through 73,000 to hit a new high, and all major communities are shouting "100k is not a dream." I was also very excited—because from 22,000 all the way to now, the unrealized gains are quite substantial.
But one thing made me calm down: my contract holdings on Gate showed a long-short ratio of 3.5:1, and the funding rate soared to over 80% annualized. This means almost everyone in the market is long, and they are all leveraging up.
I remembered two experiences from May 2021 and November 2022—whenever the market was extremely consensus, a reversal was not far off.
So I made a decision that seemed "silly" at the time: reduce my spot position from 80% to 40%, close all my contract longs, and leave some USDT in the wealth management account waiting for opportunities.
Everyone knows what happened afterward. BTC fell from 73,000 down to below 59,000, and altcoins were generally halved. Although I didn't perfectly catch the top, reducing my position helped me preserve most of my profits and allowed me to buy back in batches during the decline.
My current view on BTC is: I remain optimistic over the long term, with halving, ETF inflows, and macro easing expectations. But in the short term, don’t be driven by emotions. A simple method: when you see a screen full of "bulls returning quickly" on Gate, consider reducing your position in batches; when the market is quiet and no one is talking, start dollar-cost averaging.
To newcomers, I want to say: the money made in a bull market isn’t skill; the money you can hold onto in a bear market is true skill. #我的Gate交易时刻