Event-driven rebound ≠ trend reversal. This morning, BTC broke through $65,000 on the US-Iran agreement, with 24-hour trading volume surging to 69,300 coins, currently at $65,794. But from five dimensions: this is only a rebound, not a reversal—$65K is exactly the lower edge of the high level zone in 2024-2025, with a dense concentration of trapped positions. Next, you need to keep a close watch on the $67,000 “watershed”; a breakout requires support from inflation data or dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.

This week’s two key variables: the Bank of Japan interest rate decision + the FOMC debut of the new Fed Chair Waller on June 17; the latter’s dot plot will directly determine market sentiment for the second half of the month.

My strategy: in the short term, do not chase higher prices. Take profits in batches, and place limit orders to buy back in batches on pullbacks around $60,000. If the dot plot releases signals that rate cuts are expected, you can comfortably hold your medium- to long-term positions. Once cracks appear in the execution of the agreement (e.g., Israel causing trouble, sanctions being delayed and stuck), a sudden hard pullback could become a liquidation disaster area.
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