#比特币反弹 What appears to be a "bizarre" scene is unfolding: oil prices drop over 4%, the dollar weakens, and risk assets surge—yet gold doesn't fall but rises, surpassing $4,300, nearly a 3% increase intraday. It's not that gold is malfunctioning; rather, the market is not buying into the war itself.

In the past few months, the Middle East conflict has pushed gold prices down from a record high of $5,598 to $4,024, a decline of over 28%. The reason is: high oil prices boost inflation expectations → the Federal Reserve dares not to be dovish → interest rate expectations rise → gold comes under pressure. Today, the market's real re-pricing logic is: peace suppresses oil prices → inflationary pressures marginally ease → U.S. Treasury yields decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold — thus, gold quickly recovers.

The real focus is: if oil prices continue to weaken smoothly due to the over-expected resumption of operations at Hormuz, the space for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tools may be larger than the market imagines — this week's FOMC guidance on gold's direction will be more important than any candlestick.