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#比特币反弹
As both the US and Iran announced an immediate and permanent ceasefire and plan to sign an agreement on the 19th, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz caused international oil prices to plummet. Brent fell 4.65% to $83.27, WTI dropped 5.18% to $80.48. But gold rose above $4,300— the structural contradiction of "falling oil prices + rising gold prices" has exposed the market's true game.
My asset allocation strategy:
Regarding oil prices: Short-term bearish, war premium quickly squeezed out, but if WTI falls below $80, it may trigger OPEC+ intervention and strategic stock replenishment. Long-term investors can look for opportunities to gradually position in Brent at the lower end.
Regarding gold: Buying points have arrived. If this week’s Federal Reserve dot plot maintains the rate cut window into late 2026 or early 2027, gold will receive strong support. Medium- to long-term holdings can be confidently maintained.