#比特币反弹 As of today, the US and Iran have confirmed the achievement of a permanent ceasefire, with the formal agreement to be signed this Friday (June 19) in Switzerland. The market "toasts to peace in advance"—oil prices fell over 4%, Japanese stocks rose over 5%, and South Korean stocks triggered circuit breakers for six consecutive days. But this agreement has not yet been signed word for word.

The agreement includes 14 clauses: a 60-day negotiation period to address nuclear issues, the US needs to unfreeze $24 billion of Iranian assets and grant exemptions for oil sales, Iran commits to reducing its enriched uranium stockpile. Iran’s deputy foreign minister explicitly stated: "Iranian armed forces are always on the trigger, and will take immediate action if the other side breaches the agreement"—this is not a "kingdom of peace," but a fragile ceasefire document.

The biggest hidden danger comes from Israel, which launched an airstrike on Beirut 12 hours before the agreement was reached, and Trump directly criticized Netanyahu as "lacking rationality." This means: while the geopolitical premium on oil prices is being compressed, the instability premium has not completely disappeared. Currently, the rise contains some "castle in the air" elements, and any cracks in implementation could trigger a market panic.