The energy shock is not over, with multiple investment banks warning that oil prices may return above $90 in the third quarter.

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Mars Finance News, June 15 — As signals of de-escalation emerge from the US-Iran conflict, the global energy markets briefly stabilized, but many investment banks and institutions warn that the subsequent impacts of the energy shock are not over, and geopolitical risk premiums may persist for a longer period. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes stated that the Strait of Hormuz still faces real obstacles such as mine risks and vessel delays, and a full recovery of shipping to pre-war levels may still take weeks or even months. He pointed out that until supply chains are fully normalized, the oil market will find it difficult to quickly fill the gap. Westpac believes that during the Strait blockade, global inventories were significantly depleted, and the subsequent replenishment pressure will further intensify market tensions. TD Securities commodity strategist Bart Melek predicts that even if shipping immediately returns to normal, the global crude oil market could still face an inventory gap of about 800 million barrels by November this year, and current oil prices are still insufficient to balance future supply and demand. He also forecasts that oil prices have a high probability of rising above $90 in the third quarter, potentially triggering chain inflation effects. HSBC Private Banking Chief Investment Officer Willem Sels said that this energy shock has already spilled over into weak links in the global economy, especially in regions like South Asia, and high oil prices may continue to pressure fragile economic recoveries. Analysts generally believe that although the conflict is easing, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties in supply recovery will keep the international crude oil market highly volatile with elevated risk premiums.
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