#比特币反弹

The grand drama of the US-Iran conflict seems to be coming to an end, but I believe both sides still have a long way to go to achieve true peace, and everyone should not be overly optimistic about the market.

‌How solid is the agreement? A house of cards destined to collapse‌

The foundation of the US-Iran "ceasefire" is riddled with cracks. The US refuses to fully unfreeze Iran’s $24 billion assets, Iran insists its nuclear program is non-negotiable, and Israel further demonstrates non-cooperation by bombing Lebanon. History is a cold prophet — a similar agreement could collapse within 11 days in 2025, and the probability of this "peace" collapsing this time is over 90%. For the crypto market, this is not good news but poison: Bitcoin’s rebound is driven by short covering, and on-chain data reveals major players are taking the opportunity to sell off. If the agreement miraculously survives, the crypto market may enjoy a few days of risk appetite recovery, but the real critical point remains the Fed’s aggressive interest rate policy and ETF fund outflows (net loss of $1.8 billion this month). Once the geopolitical tinderbox reignites, Bitcoin will fall back into the $60,000 abyss.

‌Bitcoin at 65K: Fireworks Fade Quickly, Beware Illusions‌

Breaking through $65k is not a sign of a bull return but a technical trap. The price hovers on the edge of the 200-day moving average, with long-term holders accelerating their sell-offs — addresses holding for over a year have dropped to 76%, a two-year low. The future unfolds in three acts: stabilizing above $67,000 requires ETF weekly inflows of $500 million (probability slim); falling below $63,800 will trigger a sell-off to $60,000 (high probability scenario); if Middle East conflicts reignite, the $52,000 abyss will open. Do not be carried away by emotions; everything above 65K is a selling point. Keep half your cash in reserve, waiting for macro clouds to clear.

‌Crude Oil and Gold: Reversal Moves Amid Misjudgments‌

The sharp drop in oil prices is a market misdiagnosis — the Strait remains open without increasing supply, OPEC+ continues production cuts, and global inventories are depleted while Chinese demand remains strong, forming a solid floor at $86. The opportunity lies in the misjudgment: place long positions in Brent between $86-88, targeting $95, with a stop-loss at $82; hedge with bullish options to manage volatility. The so-called "strength" of gold at $4,350 is actually a technical rebound, with the real yield at 1.8% acting as a shadow. The strategy should be both offensive and defensive: reduce positions at $4,350-4,400 to hedge risks, place buy orders at three levels ($4,100/$4,000/$3,900) to accumulate physical gold bars, and diversify risk with a gold and US debt portfolio.