#比特币反弹

The US-Iran talks seem to be heading towards a big conclusion? I think it's highly likely. I also mentioned before that both the US and Iran are taking these negotiations seriously because the current deadlock is a lose-lose situation for both sides. The US is deeply stuck in a war quagmire, not only maintaining high military expenditures but also facing inflation pressures from high oil prices among the domestic population. Trump's approval ratings are also dropping sharply; meanwhile, Iran's long-term maritime blockade has severely reduced its oil exports and maritime trade, worsening an already difficult economy. Therefore, for both sides, this war has reached a stage where it must end.

So, to answer the first question: I believe the stability of this US-Iran negotiation agreement is relatively high, which is undoubtedly a major positive for the cryptocurrency market. With the Strait of Hormuz opening, oil prices have already dropped in response, inflation is easing, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are likely to increase. This will undoubtedly be favorable for cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin's bear market is highly likely to end, with a subsequent rally back to 100,000.

Yesterday, Little Wealth God also mentioned in an article that from a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in the last wave of a five-wave decline on the weekly chart, and last week’s weekly candle formed a morning star pattern, indicating a high probability that the bear market is over. Combined with the positive signals of a rally this week, the likelihood of this prediction coming true is increasing. Moving forward, everyone should shift from a bearish high-altitude mindset to mainly long positions at low levels, with a long-term target above 100,000.

Follow the trend: short crude oil at high points, long gold at low points.

Regarding gold and crude oil, their recent performance has been “polar opposites,” mainly due to the war narrative. Now that the US-Iran conflict is nearing its end, the trend of rising crude oil and falling gold will fundamentally reverse. However, considering that a few days remain before the agreement is signed on the 19th, and Israel has also issued a statement saying that the memorandum of understanding is not binding on itself, there could still be uncertainties before the signing. Even if a ceasefire agreement is signed, the next phase will be a 60-day negotiation period, during which both sides will likely argue fiercely over their core demands, and the Gulf situation may still fluctuate. Therefore, crude oil should mainly oscillate downward, and everyone can consider shorting at high points. Gold, on the other hand, should be mainly bought at lows. Coincidentally, the 4000-4100 range is also the entry point for long-term investors that Little Wealth God mentioned earlier. Have you all already set up long positions? Let’s discuss in the comments!