After a 4% sharp drop in oil prices, the real game in the crude oil market has just begun

On June 14th, after the US and Iran reached a peace agreement, oil prices plummeted over 4% in response, with Brent crude falling to $83.33 and WTI dropping to $80.30, both hitting their lowest levels since March. European natural gas futures also fell more than 5.8% simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil transportation, reopening prospects have raised market hopes for Iranian supply returning and easing transportation bottlenecks. Meanwhile, Trump's dramatic call during the Strait reopening press conference—"Ships of all nations, start your engines, let the oil flow!"—adds to the theatricality.

But beyond the emotional celebration, the future trend of oil prices remains highly uncertain.

First, actual supply recovery may be much slower than market expectations. Due to potential damage to oil infrastructure during conflicts, full supply restoration could still take months—after the sharp decline, the pace of actual supply recovery will determine subsequent price movements. A large number of oil tankers are stranded at both ends of the Strait: nearly 600 ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf, including about 98 crude oil tankers and 88 product tankers; over 300 empty ships are waiting to enter the port in the Gulf of Oman. On Monday, aside from one LNG vessel tentatively heading toward the Strait, most ships remain on standby. The Strait's throughput is only a small fraction of pre-war levels—before the conflict, an average of 135 oil tankers passed daily, but issues like channel clearance, mine risks, and insurance coverage pose substantial constraints.

Second, the risk of oversupply cannot be ignored. Analysts point out that if the volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60-70% of pre-war levels, combined with continued growth in non-OPEC+ supply, it could lead to market oversupply. This suggests that oil prices may have further room to decline.

Third, oil-producing countries may coordinate to cut production and support prices. OPEC+ is unlikely to welcome a continued sharp drop in oil prices; once capacity recovers and downward pressure intensifies, production cuts could be reconsidered.

Recent strategic positioning: avoid "flying knives," wait for a triple bottom. It is not recommended to go long on crude oil futures or ETFs, as short-term inventory data may still show tightness, and oil-producing countries might coordinate to cut production and support prices. Consider selling out-of-the-money crude oil put options to earn premiums, establishing long positions at lower costs. Long-term investors could gradually build positions when Brent crude drops to the $75-80 range, but strict stop-losses are essential.

A 4% plunge in oil prices presents opportunities, but it also marks the beginning of a true game of strategy.

#比特币反弹
$BTC