U.S.-Iran Deal: A “Lifesaver” for the Crypto Market or Just an “Illusion in the Air”?

On June 14, news that the U.S. and Iran had reached a peace agreement triggered the market. But amid the excitement, we must calmly ask: how far can this agreement really go?

From the signing structure, the deal is not a one-and-done conclusion. On June 14, Trump was the first to announce that the agreement was completed, but Iran’s side at one point denied that the memorandum would be signed that day—creating a “two-version” situation. In the end, the market chose to believe Trump. And this selective trust itself is a dangerous signal: people’s desire for a peace narrative is overpowering a sober, fact-based assessment.

Now look at the substantive content. The agreement provides for both sides to immediately and permanently stop all military actions across all fronts; the U.S. will lift the maritime blockade; and the negotiations for a final agreement will be held within 60 days. The hard nuts that still need to be cracked next include nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and verification mechanisms. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Gharibabadi stated clearly that Iran’s armed forces have “always kept their fingers on the trigger,” and once the “other side breaches the agreement,” they will immediately take corresponding measures. This is not a “kingdom of peace,” but a fragile “ceasefire window” that could break at any time.

More importantly, the compliance-and-implementation mechanism is missing—who will oversee the opening of the Strait of Hormuz? If Iran privately supports proxy armed forces, how will the U.S. counteract? In addition, Israel will most likely attempt to undermine the agreement through covert operations or by lobbying Congress, and the new Congress after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections may also reassess the deal.

The impact on the crypto market runs even deeper. In the short term (1–3 months), risk appetite may rebound. Over the medium to long term (6–12 months), if the agreement holds, global trade costs will fall → inflation pressure will ease → the Federal Reserve will gain more room to cut interest rates → liquidity loosening will benefit the crypto market. But in the long run, once the agreement breaks, risk-aversion sentiment will reverse instantly. Because crypto trades 24 hours a day, the crypto market could see sharper selloffs than traditional markets.

This agreement is a “landmine,” and the market is cautiously dancing on top of it—thinking it’s at the center of the dance floor, when in fact it could blow up at any moment.

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