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"Why Most People Overestimate the Outcome and Underestimate the Process"
Many people see Germany 7:1.
Think Germany is secure.
Many people see oil prices plummet.
Think the risk is over.
Many people see AI companies go public.
Think the future is certain.
But the market's favorite thing to do is:
Make most people see the right direction.
Yet they can't make money.
Because everyone can see the outcome.
Few are willing to study the process.
The real difference is never news.
But:
Can you detect signals before the news happens?
The World Cup is like this.
Investing is the same.