The market bets on a breakthrough between the US and Iran to boost risk assets, with crude oil plunging and rate cut expectations moving forward.

BlockBeats News, June 15 — U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a framework for peace agreement and plan to sign it officially on June 19. The agreement includes key arrangements such as lifting the U.S. naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, global market risk sentiment has significantly improved.

Crude oil prices plummeted, with Brent crude dropping about 5% to around $82, down approximately 33% from the March high. Analysts point out that if shipping through the strait resumes, it will directly ease expectations of global energy supply tightness.

Stock markets moved higher in sync, with major global indices generally rising, and U.S. Nasdaq futures up about 2% pre-market. Risk assets rebounded across the board, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $66,000, up about 2.7% in 24 hours; gold prices also rose nearly 3%, climbing above $4,330.

In the interest rate market, investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting, within the 3.50%–3.75% range, and have largely priced out further rate hikes this year. The first rate cut is now expected to be delayed until early 2027.

However, analysts warn that the current situation remains highly uncertain, including whether the Middle East situation will truly cool down, whether the 60-day ceasefire framework can be converted into a long-term agreement, and the progress of subsequent negotiations, all of which could trigger market volatility.

From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin rebounded from the $60k support level, it remains in a downtrend channel. The main resistance zones are around $68,900 and $80,000, and the short-term trend still depends on macro risk sentiment and liquidity changes.