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Opinion: Significant uncertainties remain in the details of the draft US-Iran understanding memorandum
BlockBeats News, June 15th, according to CNBC reports, the United States and Iran have reached a "memorandum of understanding" to end nearly four months of conflict. Both sides agree to suspend hostilities and promote subsequent peace negotiations, prompting a rapid market response, with stock markets rising and oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields falling in tandem.
The agreement has not yet been officially signed, and the text has not been made public. Iran claims the draft has been finalized and plans to hold a signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday, declaring that "war has been permanently and immediately ended on all fronts." U.S. President Trump stated he would lift the maritime blockade on Iran and push for a de-escalation of related military deployments.
The core arrangements of the agreement include: a 60-day extension of a temporary ceasefire to discuss Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security issues within a framework of negotiations. As a key point of contention, Iran reportedly demands the U.S. release billions of dollars in frozen assets as a condition for initiating nuclear talks, but the U.S. side has not accepted this.
In energy and shipping, Trump announced plans to promote the "free opening" of the Strait of Hormuz and lift U.S. military blockade measures, emphasizing "allowing oil to flow freely." Iranian media stated that the reopening of the strait still needs to follow Iran's arrangements. Countries like Qatar expressed support for the agreement, emphasizing support for shipping freedom.
It is worth noting that Israel did not participate in the agreement and remains involved in regional military actions. Its level of acceptance of the agreement is still unclear, making it one of the biggest uncertainties for the subsequent situation.
Analysts point out that the agreement is more of a "tactical de-escalation" rather than a final peace settlement. Major disagreements, especially regarding Iran's nuclear issue and sanctions mechanisms, remain unresolved, and there is still a risk of conflict escalation in the coming months.