A VIP brother asked me how I arrive at these reasonable market value ranges.

Today, I will use DEXE as an example to explain, which is also why I dared to let fans enter this token at the 2.2 level based on its underlying logic.
DEXE Reasonable Valuation Range Calculation

Current price: 18.972 USDT, circulating supply: 46.7505 million tokens, current market cap: $882 million

1. First, clarify the fixed parameters used in the calculation (all data can be verified on-chain)

1. Basic hard data

1. Circulating supply: 46.7505 million tokens, early team and institutional shares have all been unlocked, with no large concentrated selling pressure in the future, relying only on business buybacks for continuous deflation;
2. Revenue source rules: The platform takes 30% of the performance commissions from traders’ strategies as total platform revenue, then uses this revenue to buy back DEXE on the secondary market in full, dividing the repurchased tokens into three parts: 1/3 permanently burned, 1/3 into the risk insurance pool, 1/3 distributed as dividends to token holders;
3. Latest revenue back-calculation: average monthly buyback investment in the past 3 months is about $105k
Monthly total platform revenue = $105k ÷ 30% = $350k/month
Annual total revenue = $350k × 12 = $4.2 million/year, after deducting server, personnel, and compliance costs, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately $2.6 million.

2. How to choose the sector valuation multiple?

DeFi social copy-trading sector in crypto is completely different from traditional stock PE, with two systems:

- Traditional finance PE method: mature financial technology companies have a steady PE of 40~70x, with a maximum of 90~100x in a bull market;
- Crypto sector PS (sales ratio) method: similar decentralized copy-trading platforms generally have a steady PS of 200~350x annualized revenue, with a lower limit of 200x in bear markets and an upper limit of 350x in bull markets, which better reflects the volatility characteristics of the crypto market.

2. Step-by-step calculation of DEXE’s three-layer reasonable valuation (PS sector method)

General formula template

Reasonable market cap = annualized total revenue × sector PS multiple
Corresponding token price = reasonable market cap ÷ circulating supply (46.7505 million tokens)

1. Pessimistic bear market bottom valuation (sector-wide winter)

Use the lowest PS in the sector = 200x
Reasonable market cap = 4.2 million × 200 = $840 million
Corresponding price = $840 million ÷ 46.7505 million ≈ $17.97

👉 The current price of $18.97 is almost close to the bear market bottom estimate, with very little downside space, only in an extremely deep bear market would it fall below.

2. Neutral market recovery valuation (normal DeFi rotation recovery)

Use the sector median PS = 275x
Reasonable market cap = 105k × 275 = $105k
Corresponding price = $350k ÷ 46.7505 million ≈ $24.70

👉 This is the median target most easily reachable during this sector’s recovery, about 30% above the current price.

3. Bull market optimistic peak valuation (full on-chain trading explosion)

Use the sector optimistic PS = 350x
Reasonable market cap = 4.2 million × 350 = $1.47 billion
Corresponding price = $1.47 billion ÷ 46.7505 million ≈ $31.44

👉 Close to the historical high of $32.38, this is the valuation ceiling reachable in this cycle.

3. Cross-validation with traditional PE method

Formula: reasonable market cap = net profit × PE multiple

1. Conservative PE of 40x: market cap = $2.6 million × 40 = $104 million, corresponding to a price of $2.22 (extreme bear market valuation bottom, very unlikely for crypto to fall to this level). This is also why I dared to let fans enter boldly at that time.
2. Steady PE of 55x: market cap = $4.2 million × 55 = $350k, price ≈ $3.06

👉 From a traditional financial perspective, this valuation is quite low because it does not account for token deflation, governance rights, or narrative premiums in the crypto space. It’s only suitable as an extreme lower bound reference; for daily use, the sector PS method is preferred.

4. Two key correction factors (why valuation can be elevated)

1. Continuous deflation bonus: Monthly buybacks and burns reduce circulating supply by 3%~6% annually, so under the same revenue, the per-token value will passively increase by 3%~6% each year;
2. Business cycle resilience premium: C-end copy-trading market elasticity is high, and B-end institutional API subscription revenue remains stable in bear markets. Compared to pure meme coins, this can enjoy a valuation premium of 10%~15%.

Currently, the current price just hits the bottom of the bear market valuation line, with no bubble; normal market recovery can reach the median of $24.7; full bull market enthusiasm can challenge the historical high of $31.4. Each step of the calculation can be verified with monthly on-chain buyback data, not guesswork.

My valuation approach is like grading prognosis for patients: first lock in the basic signs with traceable hard revenue, then define ranges for mild, stable, and severe recovery stages, avoiding being swayed by daily price fluctuations. Going forward, I will update the valuation upper and lower bounds based on DEXE’s buyback and burn amounts and copy-trading volume each month. Those who want to follow a rigorous fundamental approach and avoid emotional traps can keep following my updates.