The US and Iran suddenly stop fighting,

Bitcoin directly breaks through $65,000,

Within 24 hours, over 100,000 traders get liquidated across the entire network.

But is this move really a reversal, or just a rebound?

I don’t think it’s that simple.

Some are so happy they stomp their feet, while others cry themselves out in the bathroom.

A sudden Middle East ceasefire announcement

instantly ignited the entire market,

and Bitcoin $BTC ‌ jumped straight from around 63k to nearly $66,000.

Looking closely at the data, even though the price looks good, note that on the daily timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are still narrowing—this means the true trend direction hasn’t been established yet. The end of a reversal often comes down to just one needle.

Now, let’s look at this week’s main event—the June 17th meeting, Eastern Time (Wednesday), the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the first remarks after the new Chair Kevin Warsh takes office. Keeping rates unchanged is basically a sure thing, but what if the dot plot suddenly hides a “2026 hawkish leaning”? Then risk assets could still face a script where they get pressed down and rubbed into the ground in the short term.

This rally right now is mostly propped up by sentiment. Without enough fresh capital to carry the momentum, it’s hard for this trend to last. Ethereum $ETH ‌ has been hovering around 1730, and the momentum to push higher has already weakened.

But what’s truly outrageous is $H ‌—within 24 hours, it surged from 0.2 to 0.59, a near 200% spike, and its intraday drawdown at one point was as high as -1.15%. People who chased it at high levels are already feeling cold; the pullback is coming faster than anyone.

When the market is celebrating, smart money often quietly withdraws. Understanding the trend and controlling risk matters far more than guessing up or down correctly just once.

Tomorrow is the FOMC. Will it keep moving higher, or turn and head lower? The key is to watch the 65,300 level closely. If it holds, altcoins still have a chance; if it breaks below, don’t hesitate to call it quits.

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