Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank warns users: Interacting with prediction markets will result in account suspension

One of Japan's three major cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitbank, issued a notice reminding users that accounts may be suspended if they trade through prediction market platforms.
(Background: SBI plans to acquire Japan's exchange bitbank, marking the second acquisition within a month)
(Additional context: Bernstein predicts that the World Cup will bring hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume to prediction markets, naming these three major platforms as winners)

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• Hidden Rules of Japan's Gambling Law
• Polymarket's Expansion Path
• Chain Reaction After SBI's Acquisition

On Monday, Bitbank, one of Japan's top three crypto exchanges, issued a notice warning users that accounts may be disabled if they trade on prediction market platforms like Polymarket.

Bitbank stated that if users' deposits or withdrawals are related to prediction market services, the exchange may restrict account usage. Disabled accounts will lose access to login, deposits, withdrawals, and cryptocurrency trading services.

Hidden Rules of Japan's Gambling Law

Bitbank explained that prediction market platforms allow users to bet on election results, sporting events, and even future events. If used for profit, such activities could be considered gambling under Japanese law. However, Bitbank did not cite specific regulatory actions or government directives as the basis.

This indicates that Japan's crypto industry is proactively adopting a cautious stance, even though Japan has not yet issued official guidelines regarding prediction markets.

Polymarket's Expansion Path

Bitbank's warning also highlights Polymarket's expansion dynamics. Currently, Japan is listed as one of 35 restricted regions, but in May this year, Polymarket signaled that it is considering entering the Japanese market.

If Polymarket's expansion plans materialize, Bitbank's warning will become more relevant, as users in Japan may increasingly use prediction markets directly when placing bets in the future.

Chain Reaction After SBI's Acquisition

Bitbank is currently a target of acquisition by the SBI Group. Over the past month, SBI has acquired a second crypto exchange, and Bitbank is in the process of integration.

If, after the acquisition, Bitbank enhances its internal compliance checks, this warning about prediction markets could be a sign of SBI Group's unified approach. SBI has previously incorporated the TaoTao exchange into its portfolio, and after integration, it may promote the same compliance standards across all its exchanges.

Global prediction markets are also not static. Regulatory agencies in multiple jurisdictions are taking action against platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, citing concerns over gambling.