Don't FOMO blindly. FOMC this Wednesday


Most likely: No cut. Tone and dot plot will move markets
Rate hold is almost fully priced in. The real question is the message
Days ago markets were worried about rising energy prices and high inflation risks from the US-Iran conflict. Now with a peace deal set to be signed on June 19 and oil already moving lower the Fed's biggest near-term inflation concerns may be fading
The market doesn't care about the hold. It cares whether Warsh acknowledges this shift and sounds less hawkish than expected
No cut. Tone and dot plot will move markets
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