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The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Oil is plunging. This is the single biggest geopolitical-energy market shift since the 1970s oil crisis, and it happened overnight.

On June 14, 2026, President Donald Trump declared via Truth Social: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete." The announcement confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz, which had been under a dual blockade by both Tehran and Washington since late February, will reopen without any toll system. The U.S. will immediately end its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif simultaneously confirmed that both nations declared "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon."

The market reaction was swift and brutal for oil bulls. Brent crude futures plunged $3.51, or 4.02%, to $83.82 per barrel. WTI fell even harder, dropping $3.93, or 4.63%, to $80.95. This brings the cumulative decline from mid-week levels to approximately 12%. Before the conflict, the Strait handled roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply. Its closure created what analysts described as the greatest oil supply shock in history. S&P Global had raised 2026 oil assumptions to $105 for WTI and $110 for Brent. Those projections are now being rapidly revised downward.

The official signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Mine removal operations will begin immediately after signing. Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the ceasefire after 15 hours of meetings with Qatari mediators, though notably did not explicitly confirm toll-free passage. The next 60 days will involve negotiations on sanctions termination, Iran's nuclear program, and economic reconstruction.

For traders, the implications are layered. Short-term: oil bearish momentum likely accelerates as tanker traffic resumes. Mid-term: the market faces months of logistical untangling before full throughput returns. Long-term: a toll-free Hormuz removes one of the biggest geopolitical risk premiums from crude pricing. Energy importers across Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea, and India, stand to benefit most from normalized flows.

This is not just an oil story. The Hormuz reopening cascades into forex, equities, commodities, and crypto. Risk appetite is surging. Safe-haven assets are retreating. The world's most critical chokepoint is about to flow freely again, and every asset class is recalibrating.

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