Something major happened during the daytime today.

## 🪨 Gold Update | June 15th 17:51

### Morning → Now: The market’s look has changed dramatically

| Indicator | Morning report | Latest | Change |
|:---|:---|:---|:---|
| International spot | $4,210 | **$4,330** | **+2.08%** 🔥 |
| Intraday high | $4,234 | **$4,335** | — |
| Gold T+D | 919.5 | **936.67** | +3.11% |
| Shanghai Gold main contract | 921.66 | **938.78** | +4.20% |
| Chow Tai Fook jewelry gold | — | **1,298 yuan/g** | Up by 32 yuan from yesterday |
| Shanghai Silver main contract | — | — | **+7.7%** |
| Spot silver | — | **$70+** | +3%+ |

### Core catalyst: The U.S.-Iran agreement is officially finalized

**Iran’s Supreme National Security Council announced this morning: The U.S. and Iran have finalized the text of the “end-war negotiations” memorandum of understanding, with plans to officially sign it on 6/19.**

Transmission chain:
> U.S.-Iran agreement → Hormuz sanctions relief → oil prices plunge 5% (WTI falls to $81.3) → inflation expectations cool → probability of rate hikes drops from 69% to 48% → U.S. dollar weakens → gold loosens

This is the real variable today—completely different from the picture presented in the morning report.

### Key changes before and after the FOMC

| Item | Before | Now |
|:---|:---|:---|
| December rate hike probability | 69% | **48%** |
| Oil price | ~$85 | **$81.3** |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100+ | **99.55** |
| 10Y U.S. Treasury | 4.5-4.6% | 4.62% |

### Updated resistance/support levels

| Direction | Price level | Logic |
|:---|:---|:---|
| **Strong resistance** | **$4,340-4,380** | Rebound confirmation line; only after holding firmly does it count as a reversal |
| Target zone | $4,450-4,500 | Dense trading area from earlier |
| Support | $4,250 | Intraday pullback support |
| **Key support** | **$4,000** | Bottom defense line |

### Strategy adjustment

- **Correct the “range-bound bottoming” mentioned this morning**: The U.S.-Iran agreement breaks the rate-hike logic chain—oil prices crash → inflation cools → the rate-hike probability is cut in half. This is a substantive positive transmission chain, not just a technical rebound.
- **But it’s not a trend reversal yet**: The 10Y U.S. Treasury is still at 4.62%. The ETF has reduced its holdings by 8.2 tons over 30 days. The COMEX short positions have decreased by 124,000 lots—closing positions, not opening new longs—showing “shorts are exiting,” not “longs are entering.”
- **The real confirmation signal**: Holding above $4,340-4,380 → only then does “deep squat” turn into “standing firm and running.”
- **The FOMC is still the final review**: If the Fed removes language indicating a preference toward rate cuts, this rebound could be given back in one go.

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**In one sentence: The morning take of “wait for the FOMC to decide life or death” hasn’t changed, but the bottom cards are much better now. The U.S.-Iran agreement cuts off the hardest link in the rate-hike chain—$4,340 is the watershed. Standing above it is the real reversal.**