Daily Report | June 15

A full rebound, successfully bottomed out.

(1) The US and Iran reach an agreement

The Trump announced on social media that an agreement has been reached with Iran.

The agreement includes: lifting the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, opening the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions, and Iran halting nuclear enrichment activities.

The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19, with Vice President Vance or Trump attending.

However, Israel maintains a firm stance, refusing to withdraw troops.

Overall, this is good news. Oil prices have plummeted, and the rate hike expectation has dropped from 65% to 35%.

If the agreement is smoothly signed on the 19th, the market is likely to rise again; but if not signed, a short-term correction may occur.

(2) Two key dates to watch

June 16: The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting results will be announced. The market expects a rate hike to 1%. If the result is more hawkish than expected, it will be a major negative, so watch out for risks.

June 19: The US-Iran agreement signing ceremony. If signed smoothly, risk assets may continue to rebound; if not, they will definitely fall again. I think there will be repeated tug-of-war.

(3) How to operate now

Currently, major positive news is gradually materializing: US-Iran agreement reached, SpaceX IPO funds unfrozen, oil prices falling, and rate hike expectations significantly cooling.

White-haired stock god Serenity also publicly stated that it is not advisable to continue being bearish at this time.

Bottom-fishing funds can continue to hold, and decide whether to act after the US-Iran agreement is reached or the Bank of Japan's meeting results are announced.