Here's something many people haven't realized: Every time a new Fed Chair speaks for the first time in history, the market reacts noticeably — not because policies have actually changed, but because the market is re- "pricing this person."

Greenspan took office in 1987, and two months after his first FOMC meeting, Black Monday happened (of course, that can't be entirely blamed on him). Bernanke took office in 2006, and during his first FOMC, he spoke too dovishly at the press conference, later correcting with several hawkish statements. Powell's first time in 2018 caused a 2.1% shock in the market.

This time, Warsh's situation is even more complicated: he has an academic background but also Wall Street experience, with a relatively low tolerance for inflation, but he's not the type to use tough language to intimidate the market. The issue is — the market doesn't understand his "tone"; the first 30 seconds before Thursday's 2:30 a.m. statement might be more important than the statement itself.

‍#FOMC #KevinWarsh #美股，