How will the price move before the next shareholder unlock for SpaceX?

Title: How Will the Price Move Before SpaceX's Next Shareholder Unlock?

Author: Rhythm BlockBeats

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

TL;DR

After SpaceX enters the public market in the form of SPCX, investors are not buying an ordinary tech IPO.

On one side are words like Elon Musk, Starlink, space transportation, defense contracts, and Mars narratives, which naturally carry valuation premiums. On the other side is a new stock that surged on its first day, with a closing market cap of about $2.1 trillion, but very few tradable shares at the initial listing. The real question for ordinary investors is straightforward: Is buying SPCX now a bet on the most scarce space asset in the public market, or is it providing liquidity for existing shareholders' future exit?

In recent days, discussions among the X community and Chinese investors have focused on this divide. Bulls believe that low float, FOMO, Musk’s narrative, and the potential passive buying from index inclusion could continue to push up the stock price before the first unlock. Bears are looking at another picture: aside from the shares issued in this round, existing shareholders still hold about 95%+ of the shares. As the lock-up period is phased open, more low-cost chips will enter the trading pool in the secondary market.

SPCX is currently traded not just as SpaceX’s ultimate vision, but as a time gap: before the first unlock, how high can scarce supply push the price; after the first unlock, how much of the narrative premium will be absorbed by the new supply.

First-day surge amplifies the effect of low float squeezing

According to SpaceX’s official announcement, the company issued 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 each, with an expected trading start on June 12 on Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker "SPCX," with an additional 83,333,333 shares in over-allotment options. Multiple media reports show that SPCX closed its first day at about $160.95, up approximately 19% from the issue price, with a market cap of around $2.1 trillion.

This leaves enough room for short-term capital imagination. For a large-cap stock just listed, this is no longer just about IPO hype but about the market pricing in a scarcity premium at an extremely high valuation.

Low float is the first piece of the puzzle in understanding this round of trading. According to the prospectus, after issuance, there are about 7.38 billion Class A shares and about 21k Class B shares, with newly issued shares in the IPO accounting for just over 4% of the total equity. In other words, the proportion of shares actually available for trading through the IPO at the initial stage is very low.

When a stock has limited supply and buying interest is driven up by hot topics, media, social platforms, and institutional imagination, prices tend to get squeezed. It’s not that fundamentals suddenly improve overnight, but that there are more buyers and fewer sellers.

This explains why some investors treat SPCX as a short-term trading opportunity rather than relying solely on traditional valuation models. Starlink provides a clearer revenue base, space launch and defense businesses offer scarcity, and Musk himself amplifies the asset narrative. For short-term capital, these factors may not need to immediately translate into profits; as long as they attract continuous buying, they can support a strong initial listing.

Potential index funds are also variables in the bull narrative. The logic is simple: if SPCX is included in important indices in the future, index-tracking funds will need to allocate according to rules. Such buying is usually not driven by a bullish outlook on the company but by index tracking requirements. When float is very small, passive buying could further amplify supply-demand mismatches.

But this remains a trading hypothesis. Inclusion in indices is not officially confirmed, and the so-called allocation window cannot be considered a certain arrangement. For SPCX, index funds are not yet a confirmed positive but an option bulls use to explain the possibility of sustained short-term buying.

First unlock will change the supply curve

The risk for SPCX is not that "the company isn’t great enough," but that the relationship between the stock price and tradable supply will change.

The purpose of the IPO lock-up period is to prevent existing shareholders and employees from immediately selling after listing, which could impact the new stock’s price. Many ordinary investors tend to overlook that the lock-up period is primarily a supply issue. When a company's stock has very few tradable shares versus a large number of shares that can be sold, the market’s pressure is completely different.

SPCX’s unlock schedule is not simply "a one-time release after 180 days." The prospectus shows that for the 180-day locked shares, up to 20% can be transferred starting from the second full trading day after the Q2 2026 financial report is released. If at that time the stock price meets at least 30% above the issue price, and certain conditions like 10 consecutive trading days with at least 5 days meeting the target are satisfied, an additional 10% can be released. After that, at 70, 90, 105, 120, 135 days, and so on, 7% can be released each time, with full release after 180 days.

The specific release date of the Q2 financial report has not yet been confirmed. Based on typical disclosure schedules, the first window discussed in the community might be around August, but this depends on future announcements and SEC filings. The filings also show Musk’s shares are locked for 366 days, with some major shareholders extending lock-up until after the 2027 Q2 financial report and releasing shares in phases.

This is the core concern of bears. As long as the first unlock has not occurred, low float favors bulls. Once the unlock approaches, low float becomes a risk warning, as the market will start asking: how many low-cost shares are actually ready to sell?

Potential selling pressure does not necessarily mean a sharp drop on the unlock day. More often, it influences the market by making buyers more cautious, making rebounds easier to sell into, and making valuation expansion more difficult. Especially when a stock has already been pushed above $2 trillion in market cap early on, even if new supply is not released all at once, it will change the market’s perception of "who will take over."

Therefore, "whether it can still rise before the first unlock" and "whether it is worth chasing in the medium term" can both be true. In the short term, tight supply, hot sentiment, and strong narratives may still squeeze the price. In the medium term, the exit needs of existing shareholders and employees are real, and their cost basis is usually much lower than secondary market buyers. These judgments are based on different timeframes.

High valuation turns financial reports into amplifiers

If SPCX were just a low float new stock, unlock pressure alone would be significant. But it’s more complex: it’s a low float new stock priced in an extremely high valuation range.

According to SpaceX’s roadshow materials, the company’s revenue in 2025 is about $18.7 billion. Market discussions about 2026 revenue mostly fall between $22 billion and $24 billion, but this is not confirmed guidance. Based on the first-day closing market cap of about $21 trillion, the market is clearly pricing in more than just current Starlink revenue—long-term options include satellite internet, commercial spaceflight, defense collaborations, Starship transportation capacity, and Musk’s ecosystem synergies.

Paying a high price for future stories is not inherently problematic. History shows that tech stocks often do this: when the market believes a company has a scarce entry point, it discounts future profits years in advance. The problem is that such pricing is very sensitive to timing. If earnings, orders, profit margins, or user growth don’t meet expectations, the market may not reject the ultimate outcome but will reassess the speed of realization.

This makes the Q2 financial report a key node before the first unlock. It’s not only the first performance report post-listing but also a potential amplifier of unlock expectations. If the report is strong, bulls will argue that fundamentals can support the valuation, and the short-term squeeze logic can continue. If weak, bears will link it to the unlock window: if fundamentals haven’t justified the current market cap and more shares are about to be released, why should investors buy at high levels?

This also differentiates SPCX from mature tech stocks. For mature tech stocks, earnings reports mainly influence profit forecasts and valuation multiples. For SPCX, the financial report will also impact trading confidence before and after lock-up. It must answer two questions simultaneously: can business growth support the long-term narrative, and when tradable supply is about to increase, is there still enough buying interest?

Analogy to TGE, low float has an expiration date

In the Chinese community, some investors compare SPCX to a "small float trading after a top-tier VC project TGE."

TGE is the event when a crypto project issues tokens. Many top projects, when first launched, have low circulating supply, strong narratives, and locked tokens for early investors and teams. Early on, because of limited chips and high attention, prices can be pushed up. But as the unlock cycle approaches, the market begins to trade ahead of time for future selling pressure, and prices may enter a digestion phase.

This analogy isn’t entirely accurate. Stock IPOs and crypto token issuances differ in regulation, disclosure, and investor structure. But it captures the same market mechanism: low float is not a long-term advantage but a supply-demand mismatch with an expiration date.

Within this framework, SPCX’s trading after listing can be divided into several phases. In the initial phase, the market mainly rewards scarcity and narrative, with buyers concerned about whether they can squeeze in. Before the first unlock, trading becomes more complex, with investors calculating new supply, earnings catalysts, and potential index inclusion. As larger unlocks approach, the market shifts from "can’t buy" to "can’t hold."

This also explains why community discussions often feature a "short-term optimism, medium-term caution" mixed view. It’s not a contradiction but different time slices within the same supply-demand framework. During the low float phase, bulls tend to dominate. During unlocks, bear logic begins to strengthen. The key isn’t whether SpaceX is great but whether the current price has already priced in the scarcity before the first unlock.

Follow-up depends on unlock documents, earnings, and passive buying

The most important verification points for SPCX’s subsequent movement are not Mars narratives or social media sentiment but several more concrete variables.

First, the final documents and subsequent disclosures regarding unlock arrangements. The proportion of shares transferable initially, price trigger conditions, earnings release timing, and extended lock-up ranges will directly affect the future supply curve. For investors, this is more important than daily price movements.

Next, whether the Q2 financial report can support the current valuation. SPCX’s long-term story is substantial, but in the short term, the focus remains on revenue, orders, profit margins, and cash flow. A strong report will make the low float squeeze easier to sustain. A weak report will turn unlock selling pressure into a main pricing factor.

Index inclusion also needs ongoing observation, but before official announcements, it remains a bullish trading hypothesis. If inclusion and allocation demand materialize later, it may temporarily buffer some unlock pressure but does not mean the existing shareholders’ and employees’ exit needs can be permanently absorbed.

SPCX now resembles a supply-demand experiment with a countdown. Before the first unlock, low float and strong narratives may keep prices resilient. After the first unlock, the market will start testing how much real support this $2 trillion space asset has. For ordinary investors, more important than guessing a target price is watching this switch point: when the story of "can’t buy" turns into "who will take over," the trading logic has already shifted.