How will the price move before the next shareholder unlock for SpaceX?

TL;DR

· SPCX's first day closed up about 19%, low liquidity and Musk narrative fueled short-term enthusiasm.

· Bulls bet on scarce initial unlock tokens, bears focus on existing shareholders' future share releases.

· Related tickers: SPCX, RKLB, ASTS, TSLA, Starlink.

After SpaceX entered the public market as SPCX, investors are not just buying an ordinary tech IPO.

On one side are words like Musk, Starlink, space transportation, defense contracts, and Mars narrative, which naturally carry valuation premiums. On the other side is a newly listed stock that surged on its first day, with a market cap of about $2.1 trillion, but very few tradable shares at the start. The key question for ordinary investors is straightforward: buying SPCX now is a bet on the most scarce space asset in the public market, or providing liquidity for existing shareholders’ future exits?

In recent days, discussions among the X community and Chinese investors have centered on this divide. Bulls believe that low float, FOMO, Musk’s narrative, and potential passive buying from index inclusion could continue to push the stock higher before the first unlock. Bears are watching another chart: aside from the shares issued in this offering, existing shareholders still hold over 95% of the shares. As the lock-up periods phase out, more low-cost shares will enter the trading pool.

SPCX’s current trading reflects not just SpaceX’s ultimate vision, but a time gap: how high can prices be pushed by scarce supply before the first unlock; and after the unlock, how much of the narrative premium will be digested by the new supply.

First Day Surge Amplifies Low Liquidity Pressure

According to SpaceX’s official announcement, the company issued 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 each, with an expected trading start on June 12 on Nasdaq Global Select Market and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker "SPCX," plus an over-allotment option of 83,333,333 shares. Media reports show SPCX closed at about $160.95 on its first day, up roughly 19% from the issue price, with a closing market cap of about $2.1 trillion.

This leaves enough room for short-term speculation. For a newly listed large-cap stock, this is no longer just about IPO hype but about the market pricing in scarcity at a very high valuation.

Low float is the first piece of the puzzle in understanding this trade. The prospectus shows that after issuance, there are about 7.38 billion Class A shares and 21k Class B shares, with new IPO shares accounting for just over 4% of total shares. In other words, the proportion of shares available for trading immediately after listing is very low.

When a stock has limited supply and buying interest is driven up by hot topics, media, social platforms, and institutional imagination, prices tend to get squeezed. It’s not that fundamentals suddenly improve overnight, but that demand is high and supply is low.

This explains why some investors see SPCX as a short-term trading opportunity rather than just valuing it with traditional models. Starlink provides a clearer revenue base, space launch and defense businesses add scarcity, and Musk’s narrative amplifies the asset story. For short-term funds, these factors don’t necessarily need to turn into immediate profits; as long as they attract continuous buying, they can support a strong initial listing.

Potential index funds are also variables in the bull case. The logic is simple: if SPCX is included in major indices in the future, index-tracking funds will need to rebalance according to rules, which usually means buying. When float is small, passive buying could further amplify supply-demand mismatches.

But this remains a trading hypothesis. Index inclusion is not officially confirmed, and the so-called rebalancing window is not a certainty. For SPCX, index funds are not yet a confirmed positive factor but an option bulls use to explain potential ongoing buying in the short term.

First Unlock Will Change the Supply Curve

The risk for SPCX isn’t that “the company isn’t great enough,” but that the relationship between stock price and tradable supply will change.

The purpose of the IPO lock-up period is to prevent existing shareholders and employees from immediately selling after listing, which could impact the stock price. Many investors overlook that the lock-up is fundamentally a supply issue. When a company’s stock has very few tradable shares versus a large amount that can be sold, the market’s pressure is very different.

SPCX’s unlock schedule isn’t just a simple “180 days then release all at once.” The prospectus shows that for the 180-day locked shares, up to 20% can be transferred starting from the second full trading day after the Q2 2026 earnings report. If the stock price then exceeds at least 30% above the issue price, and certain conditions are met (such as 10 out of 10 trading days meeting the target, with at least 5 days), an additional 10% can be released. After that, releases of 7% at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, and full release after 180 days.

The specific date for the Q2 earnings report has not yet been confirmed. Based on typical disclosure schedules, the first window discussed in the community might be around August, but this depends on future announcements and SEC filings. The filings also show Musk’s shares are locked for 366 days, with some major shareholders extending lock-up until after the Q2 2027 earnings, with phased releases.

This is the core concern for bears. As long as the first unlock isn’t imminent, low float benefits bulls. But as the unlock approaches, low liquidity becomes a risk warning, as the market will start asking: how many low-cost shares are actually ready to sell?

Potential selling pressure doesn’t necessarily mean a crash on the unlock day. More often, it influences market behavior by making buyers more cautious, making rebounds easier to sell into, and making valuation expansion harder. Especially when a stock has already been pushed above $2 trillion in market cap early on, even incremental increases in supply can shift market perceptions of “who will take the other side.”

Therefore, “can it still rise before the first unlock” and “is it worth chasing mid-term” can both be true. In the short term, tight supply, hot sentiment, and strong narratives may still push prices higher. In the medium term, the exit needs of existing shareholders and employees are real, and their cost basis is usually much lower than secondary market buyers. These judgments are about different timeframes.

High valuation turns earnings reports into amplifiers

If SPCX were just a low float new stock, unlock pressure alone would be significant. But it’s more complex: it’s a low float stock trading at an extremely high valuation.

According to SpaceX’s roadshow materials, revenue in 2025 is estimated around $18.7 billion. Market discussions for 2026 revenue mostly range from $22 billion to $24 billion, but these are not confirmed guidance. Based on the first day’s close of about $2.1 trillion market cap, the market is clearly pricing in more than just current Starlink revenue—long-term options include satellite internet, commercial space, defense collaborations, Starship transportation capacity, and Musk’s ecosystem synergies.

Paying a premium for future stories isn’t the issue. Tech stocks have repeatedly shown that when the market believes a company has a scarce entry point, it discounts future profits years in advance. The problem is that such pricing is very sensitive to timing. If earnings, orders, profit margins, or user growth don’t meet expectations, the market may not reject the endgame but will reassess the speed of realization.

This makes Q2 earnings a critical milestone before the first unlock. It’s not just the first post-listing report but could also amplify unlock expectations. If earnings are strong, bulls will argue that fundamentals can support the valuation, and the short-term squeeze logic can continue. If earnings are weak, bears will link it to the unlock window: the fundamentals haven’t justified the current market cap, and with more shares about to be released, why should the market buy at high levels?

This also differentiates SPCX from mature tech stocks. For established tech, earnings reports mainly influence profit forecasts and valuation multiples. For SPCX, earnings reports will also impact trading confidence before and after lock-up periods. It must answer two questions: can business growth support the long-term narrative, and with increasing tradable supply, is there still enough buying interest?

Analogy to TGE, with low float having an expiration date

Some Chinese investors compare SPCX to “top VC projects TGE with small float trading afterward.”

TGE is the node where crypto projects issue tokens. Many top projects, when first launched, have low circulating supply, strong narratives, and locked tokens for early investors and teams. Early on, due to limited tradable tokens and high attention, prices can be pushed higher. But as unlock periods approach, the market begins to trade ahead of the unlock, digesting future sell pressure.

This analogy isn’t perfect. IPO stocks and crypto token issuances differ in regulation, disclosure, and investor structure. But it captures the same market mechanism: low float isn’t a long-term advantage but a supply-demand mismatch with an expiration date.

Within this framework, SPCX’s trading after listing can be divided into phases. Early on, the market rewards scarcity and narrative, with buyers concerned about whether they can still push higher. Before the first unlock, trading becomes more complex, with investors weighing new supply, earnings catalysts, and potential index inclusion. As larger unlocks approach, the market shifts from “can’t buy enough” to “can’t absorb it.”

This also explains why community discussions often feature “short-term optimism, medium-term caution” views. It’s not a contradiction but different slices of the same supply-demand framework over time. During the low float phase, bulls tend to dominate. When unlocks near, bear logic gains strength. The key isn’t whether SpaceX is great but whether current prices have already priced in the scarcity before the first unlock.

Future depends on unlock filings, earnings, and passive buying

The most important variables for SPCX’s future are not Mars narratives or social sentiment but specific details like unlock schedules disclosed later.

The first thing to watch is the final filings and subsequent disclosures about unlock arrangements. The proportion of shares that can be transferred initially, price triggers, earnings release dates, and extended lock-up periods will directly influence the future supply curve. For investors, this is more important than daily price movements.

Next, whether Q2 earnings can support the current valuation. SPCX’s long-term story is substantial, but in the short term, the focus remains on revenue, orders, profit margins, and cash flow. Strong earnings will make the low float squeeze easier to sustain. Weak earnings will turn unlock selling pressure into a pricing theme.

Index inclusion also needs ongoing observation, but before official announcements, it remains a bullish trading assumption. If inclusion and rebalancing actually occur, they could temporarily ease some unlock pressure, but they won’t permanently absorb existing shareholders’ and employees’ exits.

SPCX now resembles a supply-demand experiment with a countdown. Before the first unlock, low float and strong narratives may keep prices resilient. After the unlock, the market will test how much real demand this $2 trillion space asset can support. For ordinary investors, more important than guessing a target price is watching this transition: when “no one can buy enough” turns into “who will take the other side,” the trading logic has already shifted. https://t.me/theblockbeats https://t.me/BlockBeats_App https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia