Bitunix Analyst: The Federal Reserve has entered the “Woshi era.” What the market is truly trading now is no longer rate cuts, but the re-pricing of global funding costs and institutional frameworks.

Crypto Finance News from Mars Finance, June 15—As Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Woorch is set to preside over the first interest rate meeting after taking office, market attention is on whether the Fed’s future policy framework will undergo a fundamental change. Recently, University of Michigan consumer confidence has rebounded from a historic low to 48.9, but one-year inflation expectations remain as high as 4.6%; European Central Bank officials have also warned that even if geopolitical conflicts end, price pressures may persist for the long term. Against the backdrop of inflation being stickier than expected, Woorch’s past advocacy for rate cuts and reforms now faces the practical test of a warming hawkish force within the Fed.

From a policy perspective, what the market is focused on is not just interest rates themselves, but whether the Fed will change the communication pattern formed over the past decade. Woorch has long criticized dot plots and excessive forward guidance, and even advocated replacing some interest rate tools with balance sheet reduction. If the Fed reduces policy transparency and weakens forward guidance in the future, the market will lose an important pricing anchor, and long-end Treasury yields and volatility in global risk assets may rise in tandem. This is also one of the key reasons why the bond market has been under sustained pressure recently.

On the other hand, global capital flows are still centered on two major themes: AI and energy. ARK continues to increase its stake in SpaceX, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are preparing to handle SpaceX’s IPO business, and SK Hynix has also reportedly been seeking to list in the U.S., showing that capital markets’ enthusiasm for funding AI infrastructure and the space economy remains strong. However, investigations into OpenAI by multiple U.S. states, as well as disputes between Anthropic and the U.S. government over access to AI models, also reflect that the AI industry is gradually shifting from a pure growth narrative into a stage of regulatory and institutional competition. In the future, market competition may not be only about technological leadership, but also about who can control computing power, energy, and the regulatory framework.

The situation in the Middle East has also shown a clear turning point. The U.S.-Iran memorandum has been finalized; if it is formally signed this week and moves to restore normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz, energy supply risks will decrease significantly, which will help ease recent inflation pressures. However, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon has not yet fully ended, and geopolitical risks have not truly disappeared. Therefore, the global market is currently in a special phase of “war risk declining, inflation risk unresolved, and liquidity staying tight.” For the crypto market, Bitcoin is more like a thermometer of global risk appetite. If the Fed maintains high interest rates and a tightening environment for longer, and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, even if geopolitical tensions cool down, it may not immediately bring additional capital back into the market. Conversely, only if energy prices fall and inflation expectations continue to decline will the market have an opportunity to re-price the possibility of improved future liquidity. At this stage, the market’s true core focus has shifted from interest-rate expectations to whether global funding costs are starting to hit an inflection point.