Bitcoin short-term bullish structure confirmed; the HYPE dip-entry setup window is now open | Exclusive analysis

The market environment this week is unusually complex—The US-Iran agreement exceeded expectations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp re-pricing of global assets, and intense emotional fluctuations precisely highlight moments where structural analysis can deliver the greatest value. The louder the noise, the more important the framework.

This week, we focus on two main themes: how the game of whether BTC can hold above $65,000 and then retest will determine its future direction; and whether HYPE, after completing a four-stage correction, will find new short-term opportunities within the pressure zone of $62.5–$64.57.

Complete trend structure analysis, market forecasts, and trading strategies are detailed in the main text.

Summary of core trading viewpoints this week:

• Hourly trend structure analysis of BTC. (See detailed explanation in Part One)

• Market forecast and medium- to short-term trading strategies for BTC. (See detailed explanation in Part Two)

• Hourly trend structure analysis of HYPE. (See detailed explanation in Part Three)

• Market forecast and short-term trading strategies for HYPE. (See detailed explanation in Part Four)

Market validation of last week’s trading strategies and core viewpoints:

• Short-term trading effectiveness of HYPE: completed one short-term long position (1x leverage) last week, achieving approximately 11.88% profit. (See Table One)

• Market validation of BTC market forecast: In last week’s article, it was pointed out that after the price briefly broke below $60,000 and found support, a short-term rebound would unfold to confirm the validity of the breakdown at key levels. The current market trend confirms our previous forecast.

• Market validation of HYPE market forecast: In last week’s article, it was noted that when HYPE’s price tests the critical support zone of $55–$57 and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals triggered by two major models, a light long position can be considered. The current market trend aligns closely with our forecast.

1. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin hourly trend structure

Bitcoin _4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 1

①, As shown in (Figure 1), since the correction from the high of $82,850 on May 6, the 4-hour chart can be subdivided into a 12-stage correction structure, including two decline centers: Center D and Center E. The overall structure is clear, presenting a typical complex correction pattern.

②, From the 4-hour trend structure, currently in the rebound of stages 38-39. The current price has already risen above $65,000. If subsequent confirmation of a breakout is valid, the next important resistance is in the $69,500–$70,500 zone.

2. Market forecast and trading strategies for Bitcoin this week

1. BTC market forecast for this week:

Core viewpoint: Focus on the retest and confirmation after the price breaks above $65,000.

• If retesting fails, the market may revisit the core support zone of $60,000–$62,000.

• If it holds steadily, it will challenge the core resistance zone of $69,500–$70,500. This level will be an important area for our mid-term short position planning.

2. Key resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: $69,500–$70,500 (previously dense trading area)

• Second resistance zone: $72,500–$74,500 (previously dense trading area)

3. Key support levels:

• First support: around $65,000

• Second support: $59,000–$60,000 (previous important support)

• Third support: around $55,000 (previous important support)

4. Trading strategies for this week (excluding unexpected news impacts):

①, Mid-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily candlestick chart: (Position monitoring model)

Figure 2

Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 2), the current price has effectively broken below the “long-short channel,” and the technical pattern has shifted into a bearish dominant pattern. Last week’s market did not satisfy our planned layout (short position), so we are temporarily out of the market.

This week, based on the game of whether BTC can hold above $65,000, we will gradually build short positions following a three-tier strategy:

• Add on strong resistance: If the price successfully stabilizes above $65,000 and shows clear resistance when rebounding to $69,500–$70,500, consider mid-term (short) positions, controlling total exposure below 60%.

• Breakout shorting: If the price falls below $65,000 support and shows valid breakdown signals, establish an initial 30% mid-term short position.

• Follow-through shorting: If the price falls below $65,000 support and effectively breaks below $59,000–$60,000 support zone, add to short positions, keeping total exposure below 60%.

②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for “spread” opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

③, To dynamically respond to market complexity, we prepare two detailed plans: A/B.

• Plan A: Build positions at strong resistance.

• Entry: If the price successfully stabilizes above $65,000, and subsequent rebound to $69,500–$70,500 shows signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from quantitative models, consider shorting with less than 30% position.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When approaching key support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Plan B: Break support effectively, follow trend to short.

• Entry: If the price falls below $65,000 support with valid breakdown signals, establish a short position below 30%.

• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss.

• Exit: When the price drops to key support levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions to realize profits.

3. HYPE hourly trend structure analysis

HYPE_4-hour candlestick chart

Figure 3

1. As shown in (Figure 3), on the 4-hour cycle, HYPE has been correcting since the high of $75.87 on June 2, subdivided into four stages: (47-48), (48-49), (49-50), (50-51).

2. Currently, HYPE’s price stabilizes and rebounds in the support zone of $52, in the (50-51) rebound phase. The resistance above is in the $62.5 to $64.57 zone. If the (endpoint 51) forms a high in this zone (there’s a high probability that the overall trend is building a “descending center” at this point), then the price will continue downward to find strong support.

4. Market forecast and short-term strategies for HYPE this week

1. HYPE market forecast for this week:

①, Core resistance levels:

• First resistance: $62.5–$64.57

• Second resistance: $68–$70

②, Core support levels:

• First support: $52–$55.5

• Second support: $47–$49

This week’s core view on HYPE:

• Observe the resistance effect in the $62.5–$64.57 zone and the position of the “endpoint 51” when forming a high.

2. Short-term trading strategy for HYPE this week: (support-based long)

Follow the principle of “buy low, avoid chasing” in short-term trading.

Short-term strategy: Stabilize at support zones and attempt long positions

When HYPE tests the $52–$54.5 or deeper $47–$49 support zones and shows signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals from two major models, consider lightly entering long positions, with position size below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss rules.

5. HYPE trading review

1. Short-term trading recap: (see Table One)

We strictly follow the plan, based on signals from our self-developed “spread trading model” and “momentum quantification model,” completed one short-term long operation last week, with a profit of 11.88%.

2. Summary of HYPE short-term trades: (Leverage *1x)

3. Short-term trading review: (see Figure 4)

①, Entry strategy:

• Previously, a relatively complete downward correction structure was in place;

• Our “spread trading model” issued a strong bottom warning signal in advance (red and white dots in the chart);

• Our “momentum quantification model” showed momentum divergence at the bottom;

Based on these, we entered a 30% long position near $54.39.

②, Exit strategy:

• When the price rose to around $62.5, resistance signals appeared;

• Our “spread trading model” issued an early top warning (white dots);

• Our “momentum quantification model” showed momentum divergence at the top;

Therefore, we fully closed the position at around $60.85.

③, Summary: This trade yielded a profit of approximately 11.88%.

HYPE_30-minute candlestick chart: (Momentum quantification + Spread trading models)

Figure 4 (Short-term trading illustration)

6. Special reminders:​​

1. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

2. When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the entry price (break-even point) to protect capital.

3. When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to 1% profit level.

4. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial market is ever-changing; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All viewpoints, analysis models, and strategies discussed herein are based on personal technical analysis, for personal trading logs only, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this content.**