Brent crude oil fell 5%, WTI neared $80.

The whole market is shouting "big positive." U.S. stock futures surged 1.6%, the Nikkei rose 4%, and even Korea hit a circuit breaker.
Trump said "let the oil flow," and oil prices dropped. The Fed's rate hike expectations decreased. Risk appetite seems to have returned overnight.
But don’t celebrate too early.
Oil prices falling is just the appetizer. What truly determines whether your wallet will be safe in the second half of the year are three events that will unfold in the next 48 hours:
The Bank of Japan raising interest rates (June 16) + Powell’s first appearance at the Fed (June 18) + U.S. Treasury yields lingering at 19-year highs.
After these three events, you'll understand what "spectacle" really means.
First shot: Japan’s rate hike — the disappearance of the last cheap money globally
On June 16, Japan’s central bank is highly likely to raise rates by 25 basis points, pushing the rate from 0.75% to 1% — the highest in 31 years since 1995.
It sounds just 1%, but do you know what that means?
The last “zero-cost funding pool” in the world is officially closing.
Over the past decade, countless people borrowed yen at nearly zero cost from Japan, converted to dollars to buy U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, or any yield-generating assets — this is the core of carry trade.
When Japan starts raising rates, borrowing costs suddenly increase, and those carry trades are like dominoes falling:
Sell assets, exchange for yen, repay loans.
Just these three actions. But who gets sold off first? The riskiest assets — your Bitcoin, your altcoins.
In July 2024, Japan’s unexpected rate hike caused a chain collapse of carry trades, and Bitcoin evaporated by 20%–30%.
And this time, net short yen positions have soared to a 9-year high — if the Bank of Japan raises rates while shifting forward guidance from “wait and see” to “possibly continue,” the sound of this landmine being triggered will be much louder than two years ago.
Second shot: Powell’s first appearance — the new Fed boss will show us whether he’s “hawkish”
The probability of the Fed holding rates steady now is 98.5%, almost certain to stay put. But guess whether Powell will speak plainly or cryptically at the press conference?
Huatai Securities predicts: a neutral leaning hawkish stance.
Change the dot plot guidance of “rate cuts in 2026-2027” to maintaining rates unchanged. Remove the phrase “tending to cut rates next time” from the official statement. Inflation expectations are raised, economic growth outlook lowered.
In plain language: the economy might weaken, but inflation won’t come down, so I’ll do nothing, and I might even raise rates.
Powell has been in office just three weeks, and this is his first time on the global stage. Trump says “I want rates to fall,” while also saying “Kevin needs full independence.”
So the most likely scenario: Powell wants to prove he’s not politically influenced, but also show loyalty to hawkish inflation fighters. His language will be more hawkish than market expectations.
Goldman Sachs has completely given up on rate cuts this year, pushing the first cut to June 2027, with the probability of a rate hike doubling to 20%.
In the crypto market, these words mean one thing:
It’s still early. Rate cuts? 2027. Easing? Dream on. In this rate environment, Bitcoin is like a boat sailing against the current.
Third shot: U.S. Treasuries — the highest long-term yields in 19 years are an irresistible gravitational pull
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been locked between 4.45% and 4.55% over the past three months, and the 30-year yield has hit 5%, a new high since the 2007 subprime crisis.
Since Bitcoin’s inception, it has never experienced a full bull-bear cycle in an environment where long-term yields stay above 5%.
This is not technical analysis; it’s mathematics.
When risk-free assets give you an annualized return of 4.5%, Bitcoin can only justify itself through price appreciation. But now?
May CPI at 4.2%, core PCE above 3%, tariffs, oil prices, and AI infrastructure exert triple pressure to keep inflation down.
The Fed can’t move. Rates can’t go lower.
Some institutions predict the market bottom may appear in late Q3 or early Q4, with a base in the $45k to $55k range.
So, the question is: where is the rate turning point in the second half?
After all this talk, here’s the judgment.
The turning point isn’t in Powell’s statements, nor in Japan’s rate hike decision. The real key to unlocking a rate decline is: can oil prices really fall and stay down?
In the mid-term strategy, Oriental Fortune Securities estimated: if oil prices fall back to around $84 by year-end, U.S. CPI could drop to 3.14%.
3.14% versus the current 4.2% — that’s a gap of a “Fed willing to signal.”
But the Strait of Hormuz just opened a demining channel; the agreement is only a memorandum of understanding. If negotiations start for 60 days and sanctions on Iran are fully lifted, there’s still a lot of uncertainty.
Powell’s “balance sheet reduction + rate cuts” stance is almost impossible to implement in the short term. His first year in office, removing easing signals from statements and making the market forget “Fed puts” would already be a major move.
If Iran’s situation changes again and oil prices rebound — the probability of Fed rate hikes will rise again, and in the second half, the crypto market won’t be “under pressure,” but “trampled.”
What should you do now?
This might hit you hard, but it must be said:
“You think the biggest downside is over; in fact, it’s just beginning.”
Don’t think a 5% drop in oil prices means everything is fine. That risk premium that’s been shaved off has already been replenished by the two “time bombs”: the Bank of Japan and Powell.
While others celebrate, stay alert. The strategy remains unchanged:
Before Japan’s rate hike, don’t leverage. After Powell’s press conference, decide. Don’t guess the direction; wait for both signals to materialize and the market to reprice liquidity, then look for the right entry point.
If U.S. Treasury yields fall below 4.2%, that’s a sign of our anticipated rebound. If the 30-year yield continues rising above 5%, it’s not about waiting for a “bottom,” but for a “floor.”
In these 48 hours, watch the show, don’t act the part.